Trading Grind

Been Awhile Since I posted

2011-09-28T08:10:00.000-05:00

My general view on the markets is bearish. Tech is holding up however. If I were an intermediate term investor say 6 months to 3 years I'd likely use the following allocation:
20% cash or more to put to work at good buying points
25% High dividend stocks
25% Precious metals and miners
25% High growth technology such as Apple, Goog, etc..
5% short U.S. indices

Shorter term I'd likely be 80 to 90% cash

Longer term over 3 years I'd cross out the short above and the cash:
25% High dividend payors
15% Pms and miners
25% High growth technology
25% oil, alt. energy, and biotech
25% Emerging markets and multinationals

New Longs

2011-05-25T11:43:00.000-05:00

Long: CORN mid term
Long: SDY mid term

Long: FAS swing, stop $25.98

All Cash

2011-04-27T09:01:00.000-05:00

I'm 100% cash now. Bernanke is going to end the stimulus, the dollar will bounce, and stocks should sell off.

It wasn't sell in March and walk away. However, I'm selling in almost May and walking away.

Crazy market we have! Good luck if you are still long.

Bumpy Market Ahead

2011-03-17T10:18:00.000-05:00

I think we have entered a period where stocks will generally underperform PMs and commodities. I think this period will last the rest of the year for the most part. I still have a few PM and miner holdings but I am well positioned in cash for now. I don't plan on navigating this turbulence through the summer months. If PMs spike upward again, I will sell them off to be 100% cash. Sell in may and walk away? Sell in March and walk away. Buy again later--like Sept.-Oct. maybe.

I'll be in touch.

T

It is about time to move to 100% Cash

2010-12-28T07:46:00.000-06:00

The market is about to pull back. This could last a few months. Expect a decent sized pull back in the neighborhood of 6%+ within the next 3 months.

Slowly moving to cash

T

Metals

2010-11-09T09:19:00.000-06:00

To say the least, metals are on fire. I have many IRA positions up 50%, 75%, and even 150% within a years time or less. I don't think this is the final wave up in this sector, but it is getting stretched and I believe a pullback of some kind of magnitude will happen relatively soon. What I'm going to do is take some profits here. For instance, I'm going to keep my core GLD and SLV holdings but in my miners I'm going to sell a portion of individual names like EXK, SLW, and ABX. Once we pullback, I'll allocate that cash into the broad indexes of GDXJ or GDX (which I already hold as well).

November elections turned out well and the GOP gained back the ground they needed. Heck, Obama even apologized! It is likely that the dollar will make all time lows sometime next year while stocks continue to rally. The question investors need to ask themselves now is: "When do we sell?" After all, nobody will want to be holding when this all comes crashing down again. My guess is, within the next two years we will need to sell.

I'm still not doing much trading. After all, all the good buy entries have virtually vanished in the only bull sector still intact = PMs and miners.

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

2010-10-11T13:41:00.000-05:00

Equities have broken out of a lengthy consolidation phase, which is very bullish. The fall
in the dollar has only helped. Nothing has changed: Precious metals and miners continue to outperform.

The dollar is due for a bounce and stocks are due to decline. Nothing has changed...the best odds are to be in precious metals because even a bounce in the dollar may not bring them down.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS: historically the market rallies BIG time out of this. The only problem I see is that the market is rallying into it. I think it is prudent to expect some selling heading into November because of the uncertainty behind these elections. If the GOP can capture a win here, I expect the market to exceed the previuos high.

SPY weekly: Big decision coming

2010-09-09T13:43:00.000-05:00

Pull up a SPY weekly candlestick chart and you too will see the large descending triangle.

We are stuck between SPY 111 ish and SPY 105 ish. For an exact chart go look at Traderbeans:
http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/

For me, I just use these levels as a guide as I profitably trade intraday. Any buy and holds should be confined to gold, silver, and miners at this juncture.

What am I trading intraday?
TZA
TNA
FAZ
FAS
QID
QLD
UNP
SRS
AGQ
RIMM

HAPPY LABOR DAY WEEKEND!

2010-09-03T11:06:00.002-05:00

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar-effects/stock-returns-around-labor-day/

September

2010-09-02T14:06:00.000-05:00

Nice rally yesterday. Small follow through today with divergence. The bulls won yet another fight around 1040 S&P. There has been a lot of fights there! I'd hate to see when it breaks.

I think we pull back tomorrow a little. An overnight short trade might work.

Overhead gaps to watch
SPY 109.78
SPY 112.30
SPY 115.89

Odds are good one of those will get filled even if we are in fact entering a new bear market. There is a lot for the bulls to overcome here ( a lot of overhead resistance not too mention how bad the economic picture illustrates).

I remain a bull until the charts tell me otherwise, but I'm highly skeptical and I'm a believer that the bear will resume at some point.

No comment on the market...

2010-08-31T12:38:00.002-05:00

Friday's Rally

2010-08-28T10:12:00.000-05:00

Well, the bulls got a much needed bounce Friday. I needed it. I'm expecting a little bounce here from the markets. S&P 1090 is what I'm looking at. At that level my longs will be sold. I'm wondering if Sept. won't give us a little head fake higher here before resuming downward. I think a reasonable downside target if support is taken out would be S&P 940-960 area.

Precious metals and miners are the leaders. All traders should know that. Keep your eye on GLD, GDX, FCX, FXI, and SLV for general market clues and direction.

It is a tough market right now.

M&A activity

2010-08-23T11:23:00.000-05:00

The market is in dire need of a news catalyst to take it sharply higher (bottom). M&A is bringing in some buyers but it just doesn't seem to be enough quite yet. Keeping stops tight here and getting stops hit....I think we move one way by Thurs-Fri and will know the direction then. Until then, I offer you YHOO:

The chart looks fairly similar to MFE before they were bought out last week. Who knows, it could happen. After all, YHOO rejected 2008s bid from MSFT. Icahn and company have been trying to stir things up and the CEO/founder even stepped down. Clearly, YHOO is not pricing in any upside move...and neither did MFE.

$18 and $14.80 are obvious upside gaps in YHOO. What would be a fair price? I think some calls of the October-January variety might be prudent speculative plays here. Who knows, maybe you will become a millionaire overnight on this spec play, just like George Soros became a billionaire overnight in 1992 by betting against the UK pound.

Volatility

2010-08-19T09:39:00.002-05:00

107.60 SPY needs to hold on a close.

Else, 105-106 area is coming.

OPEX tomorrow so we could be just experiencing some near term volatility.

Keep those stops in place.

POLL: What is the easiest stock to trade?

2010-08-09T14:07:00.003-05:00

Some traders use the same basket of stocks while others are open to anything.

I'd like to know (those of you who actually visit this blog) in your opinion, which stock is the
easiest to trade? Is there a stock that routinely gives you success? If so, post the stock that you think is the easiest to trade.

SPY

2010-07-26T14:22:00.002-05:00

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned on Zstocks site that the SPY was heading
to 115.89.

1. Earnings have been good

2. Mid term elections underway (typically the market rallies out of these)

3. The Fed continues to inflate and rates are still near 0%

4. There is not a better alternative than stocks 2-3 years out.

115.89 is still my near term target for SPY. 126.00 is still possible by year end.

Watch the Head n Shoulders on the S&P

2010-07-06T22:41:00.003-05:00

I'd rather be long right here right now. BUT, I'm very cautious of this H&S pattern
as we have rising volume on the decline into the right shoulder. The last H&S failed,
but the volume on this one is convincing.

I see potential in a lot of sectors now.

Be careful.

Energy hurting the S&P

2010-06-01T12:46:00.002-05:00

In order for the S&P to get out of this slump it will need help from the energy sector.

Looks like sellers are pricing in a rare possibility of an offshore drilling hault.

Doubt it happens, but nonetheless OIH and components are severely broken. OIH is now in the process of putting in a yearly cycle low. Once this selling pressure subsides, GET SOME.
I'd be very surprised if OIH went below $87.

Mixed Signals Remain

2010-05-10T22:39:00.002-05:00

The market is in bull mode....I THINK.

Last week the rising dollar AND rising precious metals/miners mixed with a sharp downturn in the indices is very telling that something big is brewing.

Get long the metals and miners.

February's lows need to hold in the S&P for this broad market to be "bull" otherwise under S&P 1040, expect a lot of selling and the resumption of the bear.

Regardless, metals and miners are in bull mode.

I think Bernanke has in fact avoided a deflationary depression.

Dollar up, Market up, PMs down

2010-03-24T21:39:00.002-05:00

Nothing more to it.

Buy the dips but beware of the overbought scenerios. End of Quarter usually means pullback time. Lets see what happens.

It Is Finally Vacation Time

2010-02-04T12:35:00.002-06:00

A lot of stuff going on this week. I'm just getting over the flu (thank the Lord) which lasted only(thank you Lord) about two days and just in time for me to take some much needed time off from the markets. Yes, I could take my computer with me, use hotel or resort computers, yada yada yada. But, the reality of it is that I get much more out of the vacation if I completely immerse myself in the vacation by eliminating anything relating to the markets (and a computer). And since I think this is a primo buying opportunity in the market (because i don't think another crash is happening anytime soon) I'm just going to get long a whole host of names and come back later. I can't say for sure when I will be back, but it for sure won't be until the first week of March at the earliest. I'm heading to several different cities to see family and friends, and then some R&R with the Mrs. Ten and little 14 month year old TenYear (they are joining me for the last week of the trip).

So what's going on? I've gone long today several names which include:

GDXJ
GDX
EXK
KGC
ABX
GLD
KONG
RIMM
(I sold CMC yesterday when stop was triggered, Nergo, but didn't post)
CELG

So, pretty heavy on the PMs. Near term there might be some pain in these PMs but it is my belief that the S&P won't correct much more than 10% off of its recent highs before moving on to higher highs. I think PMs will be the leaders yet again. I think a stronger dollar is an absolute joke given the massive amounts of liquidity the Fed has injected. I have stops in place but I seriously doubt they will get taken out.

So that being said, I'm outta here! Have a great February everyone! Good trading to you and enjoy your time in the markets! Don't be afraid to share what you are doing out there.

T

email: tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

VACATION DELAY

2010-01-13T21:14:00.002-06:00

Vacation will wait until next month due to business this week. I'm going to Dallas, L.A., and then a stop in Denver.

Okay, so here is what I'm watching trading, I've closed most shorts yesterday:

MGM
DPTR
SRZ
UNG
ANO
IMGG
Fortune8...Fade ME
FMCN
FAZ
NLST
AMLN
JAZZ
EXK
SONC
RT

Lots of good setups out there...if you have questions or want feedback, just email me:
tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

good luck out there!

DOW 11200???

2010-01-08T19:03:00.003-06:00

Market is getting way way way overbought, similar to the way way way oversold condition last March.
Thats right folks, even Pete Nagarian said on fast money tonight: "I haven't bought protection, because I'm just not worried about it."

Here's a tip: If you haven't been long through this rally it is too late to get involved. Wait for the pullback.

There is a chance we can get to 11200 on the DOW, and if we do I will not be experiencing it.

I'm about 20% short via QID, and SDS. I'm going on vacation (away from this bullish nonsense).

See ya in March

T

P.S. I will have access to my email: tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

good luck out there

Happy New Year!

2009-12-30T09:45:00.002-06:00

Goodbye 2009, Hello 2010!

I'm long QID today 12/30/09. The risk reward just seems to be there. Exit at $20 for sure, or if you are willing to hold a while, you might get $28.

Good trading to you all.

T

2009 will be in the record books

2009-12-02T09:58:00.002-06:00

What a rally off the lows this year. Lots of money has been made...and lost. Bears sorta owned Thanksgiving thanks to the dive on Black Friday. Bulls just may sorta own Xmas in the same way...we will see.

Where I stand?

Gold is obviously going parabolic, markets are overbought and continue to get overbought.

The path of least resistance is higher.

The rally is hard to believe and I have not traded much the past month.

I'm going to sorta stick to this strategy of not doing much unless we see big up or down moves in the currency and stock markets.

Good luck out there!
you can email me with thoughts questions: tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

Bears say they have Control

2009-11-04T19:22:00.002-06:00

Let price speak for itself.

They very well might end up having control. To me, it looks like we are consolidating again.

Lets see how it plays out.

Historically,

Bears own Thanksgiving

Bulls own Christmas

Gold Breakout

2009-10-06T11:33:00.002-05:00

Okay folks (if anyone reads this blog). I expected an SPY rise to 105-105.50 on this bounce so that I could short heavily. As of this writing, I am not short because we are over those levels. However, that being said I will short at the close if it looks like the S&P will close under 105.50.

Gold's breakout today is something to watch for two reasons 1. It has been highly anticipated 2. The dollar is not making new lows. 3. Sometimes breakouts are failures resulting in monsterous down moves.
Although 3 is probably unlikely it is something to be aware of.

So what now?
I'd like to see true capitulation in the dollar, a true parabolic move in equities, and maybe a parabolic move in Gold. At this time I want to short so parabolic moves will be nice entries for the short side. I'm expecting a large down move between the time this happens and Thanksgiving. If this moves happens I will be loading heavily into the falling: SRS and SRS November calls, FXP, TZA, and DUG

stay tuned.

MGM

2009-09-22T18:15:00.001-05:00

Is it me or does MGM looked primed for a run to $20?

Q&A

2009-09-12T10:22:00.004-05:00

How do you find your trades?

I keep a large basket watchlist (which continuosly is updated).
Some are news driven each day.
Sometimes I follow other traders ideas through blogs or those that I know personally.
Sometimes it is a 'feel' trade.

I rarely short stocks. I mean, the markets have always gone higher over the long run. Anytime you short no matter what, the odds are already against you. When short I use inverse ETFs. Shorting stocks has not worked for me.

How do go about placing stops?

Here's the thing, I know the stop before I know the entry. Sometimes the stop is just below support which I think has been the most effective. Sometimes its just the LOD. A lot of it depends on how long I'm willing to hold. What everyone should know: you can recover from a 3% loss. You can recover from a 5% loss. You can even recover from a 10% loss. But you can't recover from a 25%+ loss. Use stops even if they are mental ones.

Is it true that MMs like to run stops?

Yes, this is true to some degree but not in the sense you think. Stock prices are all based on supply and demand. So, it really isn't manipulation like some people think. If for instance if MGM is trading at $8.10 and the previous day's low is $8.03 and there is widely known support at $8.00 then most traders will have stops at $7.99 and $7.98. If demand for the stock is low between $8 and $8.10, the MM will not hesitate to run those stops because of the low demand. Demand typically increases when the price declines and a volume surge on the stop run will bounce it right back up. Sometimes traders see this as manipulation and get frustrated. A good rule of thumb is that if your stop is tight make sure it is not set at a 'widely known' level. Mental stops avoid this problem altogether but could hurt you should the stock turn one way on a news driven event.

Who are the top 3 traders in the country?

1. Goldman Sachs
2. Eric Bolling
3. Anyone else who is currently on an unbelievable run

If you subscribe to Trader Monthly magazine, you will get the idea. In my opinion, GS leads the pack in every category and Eric Bolling has had tremendous results that most will never have.

Who are the top 3 blog traders?

This is difficult because a lot of results are not known. Based on my experience, I'd go with the following:
1. Z stock http://www.zstock7.com/
2. Traderbean http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
3. Tim Knight http://www.slopeofhope.com/

I have no idea if these traders are the three best but based on everything I have seen, most of the information made public on these blogs would have made traders a ton of cash.

Will Obama get reelected?

I hope not. I doubt it. But you know, the masses are asses.

Positions

2009-09-09T07:53:00.002-05:00

Here is what I like, watching, or am holding:

KONG: absolutely strong over the past year, watch $14 level
TIE: watch the $9 level, it looks to be opening above this morning...$12 may come quick
C: critical level, $5
MGM: critical level $10
JAZZ: momentum
SVA: swine flu momentum
FXP: for downside in the mkts
UNG: nice 10% pop past two days, $11 should be troubling for UNG
ERTS: in and out
ENER: in and out nice 20%+ pop yesterday
LEAP: buy in low 17s...going to $20
VG: long term lotto, just signed deal with Apple
ESLR: lotto type play, I think if solars can get hot again it will see $4.50

What Everyone Thinks

2009-09-02T13:12:00.002-05:00

Everyone thinks that the bear market of 2001-2003 will yield a similar pattern in charts during this recession.
Here's the sorta things you hear that verify this:
"retest of the lows"
"V shaped recovery"
"W shaped recovery"
"10% pullback this month"
"next leg down"

C is for Cookie but N is for Noway in hell. Nobody knows what is going to happen and the sooner you all get this into your head, the better off you will be.

If I had a gun to my head, I'd say we go up to DOW 11,000 or even 12,000 next year. Then, we we will slam into the lows and make fresh lows with an eventual DOW of 4000 or even 5000.

In the meantime, keep buying low and selling'em high! If you can't do it right, then don't do it!

Swine Flu

2009-08-24T21:29:00.002-05:00

If half of Americans are going to get the Swine Flu and Half of Americans are currently underwater with their mortgages, how does this bull rally continue?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8_2nrwYD1kM

I admit, I sold my Oil long today just after Gold's selloff. 1. I had good gains 2. The selloff intrady in Gold and Equities spooked me. 3. I can't figure out why Gold is not breaking out.
Basicly, I got more bearish today. 4. Money is flowing into Treasuries again--this is a biggy.

I'm net short again. Sheesh, will i ever learn. I'm sure Goldman will end up being right about Oil, and that will be fine because i will be all over it short up at $85.

We Found Out the Result

2009-08-21T18:17:00.002-05:00

It was another Buy the Dip this past week.

Now what?

I'm expecting profit taking going into Labor Day. People are going to need money for their vacations, economy still sucks, and the market has rallied 50%. In my opinion, only a fool would not take profits ahead of the holidays in this climate.

The real question is: what does the 3rd Quarter look like for earnings? Does the fake economy keep pushing up stocks with artificial earnings or has the smoke and mirrors ran its course? If we pass DOW 10,000, I'll probably mortgage the home to go short.

"Buyer Beware"...this should be a government mandated phrase posted on all stock transactions.

I'm Long oil
I'm Long C
I'm Long SRS
Holding lots of Cash

Buy the Dip or ready to Drip?

2009-08-18T13:36:00.002-05:00

We find out how long this dip lasts very soon. Keep those stops tight. There haven't been too many dips on the is run up from March so watch for dip buyers. I'm still bear minded however.

Goldman Sachs Hedge Funds

2009-08-12T17:58:00.001-05:00

Here is what they are doing:

Long Oil

Short Oil Refiners

Short U.S. Dollar

Short Yen

Short Japan

1100-1200 S&P is what they all say

2009-08-04T19:59:00.002-05:00

Now that everyone is bullish, and I mean everyone (the bears are even buying), the correction is in sight.

IYR: $39-$40 area is great to enter short.

I don't think we will see 1100 on the S&P.

The dollar will find a near term bottom soon.

If the S&P gains another 7%, then back up the truck short because that will be a 50% up in the S&P since the lows.

Get short soon and walk away. Check your account in 2 months.

All systems go

2009-07-27T06:52:00.002-05:00

The bulls have all systems go: H&S pattern failure, resistance breached, the entire media talking about how Ben Bernanke has saved the world, and rising oil with a falling dollar.

Heck if you can't beat them, join them.

A lot of bears have been hurt recently by this up move we are in. I would be lying if I said I hadn't been hurt. I have had some winners but more losers than I typically get. Sometimes that happens and we just have to brush off and try again. So what am I looking at?

Keep your eye on the dollar, as long as it is heading south then equities should do fine. But it will soon fine a intermediate term bottom so if you are bullish just be prepared with your stops. As your position profits, just raise your stops to lock in the gains. Here is what I am trading:

SRS...watch IYR which could run to $39 making SRS attractive again.
UNG...will run sometime, probably a continued buy on a ticks under $13
TZA...3x bear IWM
TNA...3x IWM
UCO...this is double long oil
STP...breakout in progress, watch a reversal be defensive
JASO...possible breakout, watch it
KONG...broke last week but ended the week soft
HIG ...I had nice gains last week on this but exited too soon...I'm watching for a breakout

Is everybody in?

2009-07-22T07:51:00.002-05:00

I'm getting that feeling again, where I need to ask, "Is everybody in?"

7 straight up days for the S&P...even though volume has been low, prices have gone up and bears have been hurt.

Based on the good numbers coming from tech land this quarter, I think it is fairly obvious what Americans have been doing with stimulus money. They have not been paying down their mortgages with it like they are supposed to...nope, they have been shopping for electronics.
Artificial earnings are now complete! Or are they? Perhaps we get another quarter of artificial earnings, after all, the Fed pumped massive amounts of money into our system.
Here's what I'm trading:

UNG
SRS
FXP
KONG
DIG
DUG
ERY
TNA
TZA

KONG

2009-07-19T10:44:00.002-05:00

What a run this stock has had. $3 to $11.50 in a fairly short period of time. The upward move has been steady and long overdue IMO. This is a quality growth gaming company in China and a very possible takeover candidate. It has broken resistance. I'm looking for a move to $14.50 ish.

$11.20 was the resistance and it closed above this price Friday.

The Market

2009-06-26T08:04:00.002-05:00

Well, the action after the Fed through Thursdays close is certainly not positive for the bears. I think it is reasonable to assume that we are heading toward $94.40 on SPY which coincides with a gap fill from June 15th and a top resistance. $93 to $93.20 could be a right shoulder top should we get there, but I just see this weeks action as bullish enough to push us higher than that.

All in all the jury is still out on the indices.

I still like USO short. Although my thoughts on deflation have been wavering back and forth. At times I think it has further to go, but at other times I think it has ran its course. For instance, last week I bought another computer for $600. I bought that same computer in 2004 for $2200. Things like this make me think its over. But, then I look at car prices which have barely budged since 2004 and I think we have further to go.

I'm lacking sleep today. The market doesn't know what to do. Keep buying low and selling high.

MGM

2009-06-23T19:26:00.002-05:00

I still like the oil short.

UNG, I would want to be a buyer up until about $13.30

MGM: Gave it another try today at $5.60.

I think MGM has the potential to double or even triple with some good news over the coming months.

Short Oil, Patience Needed

2009-06-16T20:02:00.002-05:00

Oil sitting right near its trendline. USO break below $38 is shortable. You can short now with a stop above $40. I would wait for a break below $38 because $40 is resistance and there is too much unrest in Iran making the headlines. Oil inventories tomorrow as well as CPI #s.USO is getting very close to coming down. There is a tiny gap from November that remains unfilled at $41.42. I originally thought (2 weeks ago) that USO would make a run for that gap making a false breakout, giving an excellent short entry though DTO or SCO.USO short is a no brainer. If you short it up there and are wrong, well then, we will be in a depression and it won't matter anyway. lol. My guess is that Obama will end the oil run somehow.

$42.60 and $50 are the two resistance levels above $40 for USO. I'd say shorting USO at $41.42 with stop at $42.70 would be a very nice way to play it. Of course, it still needs to get that high.
resistance after $50 is $69.It is really an argument of the dollar strength and Inflation/deflation. Everyone is screaming inflation but foreign nations bought our 30 year bonds without a blink of the eye last Thursday (that is deflationary). If you were a large foreign investor worried about inflation, you wouldn't buy 30 year bonds. Either that or they know something that we don't know. I think the dollar's ultimate low is in for several years and deflation has NOT ran its entire course. Therefore, oil is going down (eventually). I'd be surprised if USO gets back to $50 but then again its peak was $120.

--watch the dollar
--watch SPX
--watch oil

Buy Low and Sell High

2009-06-09T15:10:00.002-05:00

In a market this boring, we can easily lose site of a simple fact: buy low and sell high. If you are making overnight trades or daytrades and are experiencing profits, I suggest you take them when you have them. The upside is very contained here as the S&P struggles to regain new highs...but the more it bumps up against it, the more likely it is to break and when it breaks it will probably be huge. The downside is also contained. What you ask? The dips are being bought, S&P support is not defined at this juncture...a break of prior daily lows at 923.85 is a must for the bears to take back control. And even if that level breaks, the bulls could bid it back up. So, we have major sideways containment at this point and if you are trading, take profits when you have them because the profits are hard to come by during this period.

I am short the S&P via SDS. My stop is just above the highs on the S&P or the lows for SDS. This rally is impressive and is now going on 35 days during this cycle. The average trough to trough which is 39 days. From the bottom, we are actually on day 65. Odds of a reversal are increasing rapidly. Make no mistake about it, this IS a bear market that we are in and equities will pull back again. They are very capable of putting in a fresh low as well.

BAC
USO
UUP
IYR
UNG
TBT
SRS
XLF
SPY
SDS
URE

good luck out there

S&P 500

2009-05-29T11:52:00.002-05:00

The monthly chart of the S&P 500 looks bullish.

Will it be sell in May and walk away? The sideways action over the past month could be consolidation before moving higher.

A break of 950 on the S&P should shoot stocks up to 1050 on the S&P rather quickly.

UNG

2009-05-26T19:42:00.003-05:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ung&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0

http://www.futuresbuzz.com/natgaslt.html

Natural Gas is a great long term buy right now.

In the second chart you can see the volatility associated with NG. It is known for 100%-300% in a year's time. NG has been hovering around 3.50 recently, a huge tail not pictured in graph #2.

If we post a reversal here, you made a great buy.

My stop is just below the April lows

Memorial Day

2009-05-21T15:07:00.002-05:00

Monday is the holiday, and tomorrow could be quiet. Last year it was a big down session.

Today we tested support on the S&P (close enough) and it held (again). We will get through it.

What was TenYear trading each day the past few sessions?

OIH
INTC
SRS
URE
FXP
FAZ
FAS
LNC
BAC
AUY
UCO

I leave whoever is reading this blog with this:

THE MARKET DOES THE MOST OBVIOUS THING IN THE MOST UNOBVIOUS WAY

Markets are all mixed up

2009-05-18T14:28:00.002-05:00

As I write, the DOW is up over 200 points and the S&P is over 905.
One could argue what a wonderful shorting opp today is. After all, where did this rally come from? On the other hand, the bulls are saying, "Hey fellas, we have held 880 and the government is saying that the worst is over!"

Here is my stance:

The primary trend is still down (we are still in a bear market). Resistance and support are both being hit on a daily basis. Keep your eye on the dollar as it hovers around support. If it holds, equities will fall. If it doesn't hold, I think we are in for a monster rally over the coming weeks.

Stay nimble.

900 Level S&P

2009-05-13T10:19:00.000-05:00

876-880 looks to be the next support under 900

Much needed Weakness is Here

2009-05-12T10:23:00.003-05:00

Waiting for this weakness was like waiting for a much needed rain in the summer. We all knew it would eventually happen, but we just didn't know when. I'm using this weakness to scalp some shorts intraday primarily.
Surprisingly the volume has been low on this pullback. I'm also rapidly going through charts to find long setups.

good luck out there. Its OPEX week so don't be surprised to see lots of chop.

This Market Smells

2009-05-06T15:34:00.002-05:00

Everyone was afraid to buy on the way down.

Everyone is afraid to short on the way up.

Fundamentals have not changed. We WILL retrace down. But when....

if anyone has a crystal ball, leave it here please.

Is Everybody in?

2009-05-04T19:37:00.002-05:00

"Is everybody in, the ceremony is about to begin. Is everybody in, the music is about to begin......
This is the end my beautiful friend
the end.
This is the end my beautiful friend
the end."

..the words of the late Jim Morrison. The market has me singing this. I don't know why, maybe because this is the biggest rally in the shortest amount of time that the stock market has ever seen.

I keep thinking that once everybody is on board, the selloff will begin again.

I sold many longs today. Maybe the rally will continue, we could argue to as high as 1100 or even 1200 on the spx. Keep your eyes open.

What I'm Looking At

2009-05-02T09:51:00.003-05:00

I'm watching or trading long the following: (I rarely trade short a stock)

ENER
XLF
IYR
EXPE
RYL
VMC
STZ
ACL
JEC
ACI
ZNH
SMG
DV
NEM
LNC
BAC
OIH

--take a look at those charts and see if you can't find a long entry somewhere

I'm Tired

2009-04-29T22:17:00.002-05:00

Its late so these points will be brief and frank.

1. I'm not a traditional bear
2. Markets are getting VERY extended
3. Oil will not reach $70 this year and this trade is dead
4. I'm expecting an all time slow market this summer
5. It is very possible that we may not head lower until the Fall
6. UNG is a great long term buy at these levels.....hurricane season is still a ways off, but UNG should climb into it. I don't know when it will start.

Vacation Time

2009-04-21T17:20:00.001-05:00

I'm outta here the rest of the week. On to Seattle, then Hawaii, with a nightly stop in Vegas on the way home!

What I like:

long OIH
long DXD
long SLV
long KONG
long WFC
long UYG

Wait for confirmation of a top

2009-04-19T20:16:00.002-05:00

It seems all of the bears are gearing up to put the hammer down and are calling for an intermediate term top.
My advice: wait for confirmation. It will come in the form of a daily reversal or a one day large volume decline. We haven't seen more than two days in row down since the rally began. With all of the earnings this week my best guess says that this is the week than we either: Explode much higher assuming the rise or we reverse lower to resume the major downtrend.

Either way, I'd be a buyer of June puts across the board in stocks and/or indices to play an eventual fall or correction.

I'll be out of town past Tuesday....

good luck

OPEX week

2009-04-13T08:19:00.002-05:00

The hangover from last week's party should carry us into Wed. I expect Wed through Friday to show us continued upside and for the SPY to top out around 87.50-88.03 for an intermediate swing high.

May through August will be a boring grind lower which may not produce new lows.

Thats my take on the markets, now lets see how wrong I am;).

I'll be playing most of the same symbols I've been using:

WFR
TSL
SRS
URE
SKF
WFC
FCX
UCO
UNG

...keep your eye on the dollar

Not Much will move the market this week

2009-04-06T14:01:00.002-05:00

It is a Holiday week. Expect lower volume. One potential market mover this week is
AA reporting earnings Tuesday after the bell. All they need to do is report in-line and the stock should move higher.
This might be a good week to step aside for a vacation.

I'm out of SRS for a nice profit.
I like the looks of X on the AA earnings.

The Castle is getting pretty high

2009-04-04T12:23:00.004-05:00

SRS is sporting an identical breakdown candle as in December. Odds are high that we see a small move with consolidation. IYR might hit $34 or it might not. Either way, SRS is going back to $58 for sure, maybe even $75 on the next leg down in the market.

Most of my charts are showing Bollinger Band short trades. APPL to $120, OIH to $130, RIMM to $75, SKF to $50, XLF to $12.50, IYR to $34!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What? These are some of the projections I'm hearing from the bulls in the near term.

I think it is safe to say that these projections certainly are not ruled out, but the castle is getting pretty high and people are getting "comfortable" again.

Key resistances to watch this week:
IYR $29.60
XLF $10
OIH $88
WFR $19.20

Tough Market

2009-04-02T15:11:00.002-05:00

Like I said a few posts ago, this is a tough market now. There is sooooooo much resistance above us it makes me sick to go long.
As for today's action, I'm not surprised by the late day profit-taking. The M2M news was sorta just shunned for the most part. My take is that the market tried to reverse in the afternoon and it failed. I think we closed neutral.
At this point, I'm not sure what else can make this market go up other than good earnings. I don't think earnings will improve until next quarter however.

I like the short scalps here as the market will hunt for a short term toppy top. We are short term overbought. Intermediate term we may see 860 or even 880 on the SPX.

Lets see what the market does after tomorrows job numbers.

M2M decision time

2009-04-01T23:24:00.002-05:00

We will know tomorrow. 8AM eastern the meetings begin. We will also be getting updates from the G20 starting to roll in around 9AM and 10AM.

I expect a bullish early morning. No matter what comes of these meetings i think we sell off hard.
Here's the catch:
If M2M gets changed, you need to be a buyer of the selloff late in the day because next week we will explode higher.
UYG
XLF
BAC
WFC
...you know the financials. WFR looks really really juicy on its triangular breakout. No matter what, I'm longing WFR.

Market is much "harder"

2009-03-26T10:36:00.003-05:00

Resistance on SPX is around 825-830 ish. But there is sooooooo much overhead resistance on almost every tick above that area too that it is going to take a lot of bull power to keep pushing higher.
I'm not sure what yesterday was all about (ya know the intraday downward draft and then sudden last 45 minute blast higher)...they sold the good news yesterday...they are buying the bad news today....we have a ton of overhead resistance....a ton of cash on the sidelines.....a decent amount of time for the government's circus schemes to take effect....bank stress tests looming in the near term...tax refunds coming out soon.....suffice to say that the market is getting "harder" to trade here.

Market Prediction for Monday

2009-03-20T07:26:00.003-05:00

Today is Friday and its Quad witching day. I expect an absolute chop session.
S&P key resistance = 800
S&P key support = 750
We aint breaking either one of those today, but what about next week?

Bulls have some control right now and I see bull flags on the charts since this rally began. I suspect that options players are going to buy some puts on Monday for April, this means that they are going to buy stocks. What? How can this be? Well, you see thats how the game is played. They short stock and then buy calls for protection. Right now they need protection on the downside, so expect some put buying and additional stock buying. MtoM accounting is still a potential catalyst and I think many traders are not taking this lightly.

I'm going to be honest: I think we go higher next week.

USO
UNG
FAS
XLE
XLF
AUY
LNC
PRU

Bear Market Rally

2009-03-19T08:12:00.003-05:00

These bear market rallies can last 2 months. Brace yourselves.

IDEAS:

USO could be breaking out
UNG is so cheap you should be able to buy it at the Dollar Store
Semis might try a break out....SMH or the double USD
UYM might have legs to $13.50
XME and the miners look very good

An interesting trade would be to long financials and short homebuilders.

Make no mistake about it, our economy is B-A-D and the Fed is buying "stuff" because rates can't get any lower. I'm not in the bull camp, but I'm careful of the bear market rallies.
I think the S&P must print at least 450 before we are out of the woods...at least from a valuation perspective. Right now an S&P of 23! Come on! Look at the economy! When the PE of the S&P is averaged in the single digits, we will talk bottoms.

The 5 keys to trading success

2009-03-16T13:20:00.002-05:00

1. Patience

2. Entry Price

3. Recognizing the primary trend

4. Using mental stops to cut losses

5. Patience

What a rally!

2009-03-12T21:35:00.002-05:00

I made a fortune the past 5 trading days. Just shy of $150,000.

I was in and out of the following stocks regularly:

LNC
HIG
WFC
BNI
UYG
FAS

I doubled my money in a UYG position that I had bought at $1.38 which made me a bundle.
But big gainer were my 2010 January $3 calls in FAS.

I think we are getting a little extended now although I'd most welcome a push to a little higher.

I'm looking at SRS and FAZ now as the market may come in a tad.

best of luck out there!

Market Sentiment

2009-03-09T15:15:00.002-05:00

Why would long term investors sell now?

Many reasons. Obama's policies alone are vast and bearish. Long term YOU should be bearish.

However, market sentiment is soooooooooo bad right now. Everyone expects the market to go lower and really there is no reason to think that it won't. This means that you should not be shorting.

I'm currently exposed to the following longs and/or am looking to scalp longs in the following:

WFC
LNC
GE
BNI
RIMM: I like it at $30
UYG/FAS
PBW
BAC

Has the market priced in 15% unemployment or 10% unemployment? I think the market HAS priced in 4 years of Obama in the White House and 10% unemployment but not 15% unemployment.

We Bottom Soon

2009-03-08T11:55:00.003-05:00

A near term bottom is near. I don't need to post a chart to illustrate because you know already what it looks like.

March historically has marked tops and bottoms alike.

Technicals are not showing capitulation or fear based selling yet. There is a chance we may not get capitulation here. I think we bottom this week (near term) whether we get fear based selling or not.

I think option calls as far out as Sept 2009 and January 2010 look extraordinary...especially in financials.

FXP is going up

2009-03-06T09:59:00.002-06:00

Time to buy FXP right here at $42 or better.

FXI chart looks like phat bastard.

FXP chart looks pretty

China will not pull us out of the recession. FYI, China is dumping most U.S. investments.

I'm in FXP two days ago at $38.02. It was a day early. But now we are moving higher.

Rare up Day in the Market

2009-03-04T16:31:00.002-06:00

I think today was a weak performance by the bulls. We struggled to test the first resistance level and then sold off hard at the end of the day.

This may be all the rally we get on this move up.

I'm still making my trades intraday, primarily on long scalps. At some point we will be able to turn those scalps into swings. But not yet.

This market needs to bottom and at this rate it could take another 52 weeks.

OBAMA

2009-02-23T22:39:00.002-06:00

Since Obama was elected, the market is down 2000 points. The Stimulus money--what where and why has yet to be answered.
Tax payers are pissed. Tax payers need money.
Increasing the Capital Gains tax is still on the table. Taxing more on trades is still on the table.
Baby Boomers are now beginning retirement--they are selling like crazy.
Anyone who has bought since 1998 is now underwater.

This all results in long term holders selling massive amounts of positions in the open market and who can blame them? We are going to see some serious new lows in the market and it is coming quicker than most imagined. While we may get a short term bounce that is overdue, we are for sure heading south in a big way.

Don't blame me, I voted for McCain.
At least we can look forward to a new President in 4 years.

Oil

2009-02-19T13:33:00.003-06:00

Markets look horrid. But today's inflation report should send shorts covering in oil. We have a bullish reversal (short term that is). Pull up your chart in USO, DXO, or UCO. UCO is best.

Everyone is expecting new lows in the indices.

And guess what that means?

go long. Pretty tough to short here.

No Mans Land Continues

2009-02-11T13:37:00.002-06:00

Despite the huge 4% selloff in the markets yesterday after stimulus passage, we still remain
in a tough trading environment.

The sentiment out there is tilted bearish but a lot of analysts are calling for a dramatic rally as well.
New lows coming soon?
Breakout higher coming soon?

Its a tough call and I'm trading long scalps intraday right now.
What I'm looking at for scalps and swings:

AMR
LUV
BRKR
FRO
EXPE
USO
NRG
BGU
KO
XOM

thats all for now

No mans land

2009-02-03T19:55:00.002-06:00

We remain in no mans land acrossed the indexes. Difficult to short, difficult to long.

XLF turned weak today and I think it is headed for at least a retest of lows.

What do I like from the long side even though?

UNG
UCO, DXO, USO
ENER
VMI (with caution) I sold out but the strength today makes me think it will run at that gap near
$46. Use a $40.98 stop.

February

2009-02-01T12:44:00.002-06:00

Pessimism is high.

Financials have remained in a short term uptrend. $8.90 on the XLF is the line in the sand.

I like the long trade this week.

January is almost over

2009-01-29T13:29:00.004-06:00

January has been difficult two years in a row.

I'm out of BIDU, GE, SSO, and FXI at minor profits.

I'm long the following:

MSFT
DXO

What I'm looking to buy:
BAC
STI
GE
KOL

there is a big rally out there some place....

Long

2009-01-16T15:09:00.003-06:00

I'm long the following (with purchase price) going into the 3 day weekend. No short positions.

FXI: $25.10
SSO: Avg. $23
TEN: Avg. $2.20
DXO: Avg. $2.85
GE: $13.10

Goodbye George W. Bush

Much needed profit taking today

2009-01-07T15:03:00.002-06:00

Why would anyone sell in January when they could have taken losses in December??

Stay trading on the long side. Too many catalysts this month for the market to sell off. Currently trading from the long side the following:

FAS
C
USO
SSO
TIF
BNI
LNC (be carefull here, it has gone from $6 to $25 in a month)
MOS
RIMM

While the market seems ripe to short up here, it would be riper near S&P 1050.

--don't use margin
--trade long side only if you have to

Risks remain high staying short

2008-12-02T09:50:00.002-06:00

Wow what a week through Thanksgiving! I made more money that week than I did all year long. I sold at the top on Friday and went all cash. However, I think all dips can be traded from the long side as we are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overdue for an intermediate term rally.

The market loves Obama
The market is in a lot of cash
Xmas season is a reason to buy

Be carefull on the short side....institutions are not hedging short at a lower level, they are buying.
Year end pension/401k contributions should offset any tax loss selling.

Only use short sells intraday.

B

XME again...still testing

2008-11-17T11:22:00.000-06:00

XME...for you Z...chart testing

2008-11-17T11:13:00.004-06:00

double bottom....going to $38 test of 50 day. 200 day would be even better...doubt it though

THE MARKET

2008-11-17T10:33:00.001-06:00

We are at the bottom of the trading range as I type this. You have two choices when trading anything other than an intraday time frame:

1. Go LONG with a stop just below last Thursdays lows.
2. Go SHORT and hope for the disaster that seems to be coming.

2 poses more risk than 1

Market Looks Ready

2008-10-28T17:26:00.000-05:00

To those of you looking for a swing long, I think now is the time. Traderbean says AAPL is ready and I very much concur with his analysis. I'm expecting 995 to 1150 on the S&P on this rally, it might take two months though.

Directionless

2008-10-21T12:45:00.001-05:00

The markets are directionless and rightfully so. Credit market bubble pops, housing market collapses, election around the corner, and not to mention 3rd quarter corporate earnings. There are three things you should be doing.

1. Paying off all debts if you haven't already. This includes your mortgage. You will never have access to credit like you have in the past. Zero down on a home? Never to be seen again. This will collapse housing prices and the credit markets will take years to heal.

2. Buy for the long run, selective Buffett type stocks--stocks you can hold for 5 years or more.

3. If you choose to trade (which is dangerous in this directionless market), keep your trades intraday.

Stocks you can hold for the long run:

UNG
FCX
AAPL
BNI
GS
WFC
BRKA, BRKB
LNC
PBW
V
VWO

HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET UNTIL THE ELECTION

2008-09-24T11:59:00.000-05:00

Things are likely to remain volatile until Congress acts on this bail out plan. No matter how they act, things are still bad. This financial crises is ugly and people are getting hurt in money markets, bonds, and other (safe investments). Sound like 1930s?
Congress WILL act in some fashion. But that doesn't save the stock market. We need to expect a long term recession if not depression.

So, today is Wed. the 25th of September. I'm going long next Monday the 29th or Tuesday the 30th. Stocks I'm looking at: GS, BAC, AAPL, RIMM, and other Tech and/or big financials. I'm going to sell in or around Yom Kippur that week of October 6th. I'm expecting an absolute bloodbath after that to end October as election volatility sets in.
1. People will want to take long term capital gains prior to the election AND prior to the end of the year.
2. The election also gives reason to take tax loss selling earlier than normal.
3. A "Bail out" plan will not save the economy and/or corporate profits...we will need to run a recession course.
4. People are still pulling out their money from the market to help pay for their homes and the cost of rising food prices.
5. Institutions are not buying into the stock market yet (how can they?). When they begin to buy, we can begin to look for a bottom. But, folks, this is a ways off.

Goog luck.

If you have questions or want clarity please email me: tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

September 17th-- Probably time to go long

2008-09-17T07:46:00.000-05:00

FNM, FRE, BSC, LEH, MER, and AIG are all gone. Who might be next? WB, WM, and MS seem prime to disapear in some fashion.

Winter is around the corner and so is the election. Are you going to be caught short? It is time to buy Tech, Commodities, and Multicaps with low international exposure (low strong dollar risk). Stocks to consider buying:

FCX
UNG
RSX
USO
DIG
VMI
DBA
XME
GLD
SLV
JASO
WFR
SPWR

DIG, UNG, ENERGY, COMMODITIES

2008-08-07T15:10:00.000-05:00

What are institutions doing (ya know, the big money)? They are betting the price of oil is going to go higher. We can see this through several indicators. They sell stocks when oil prices drop and reduce selling when oil prices rise. Why do you suppose they do this? I'll let you think for yourself. A good conclusion has to do with Energy being the leader in our economy.

Pull up a weekly on DIG, UNG, or any energy related ETF. Take DIG: Worst case scenerio we are going to form a right shoulder on DIG. By DIG now even though it might hit $70s again-- walk away from your computer and watch it break above $95 in a month. UNG is crazy! Buy it now and double your money through the winter!!!

Back from vacation

2008-08-06T13:33:00.000-05:00

I see my FCX buy order was filled at $76 yesterday. Dam, I really hate to sell it this soon, but $10 bucks!!! I'm out of FCX again...bummer cuz I really like it. Maybe we can get it at $82 again. In and out of JASO for a $1, in and out of POT for $2, looking at AUY again.

AUY
DIG
UNG
UNG
UNG
PCU
AUY
SKF

SPY target 132. Can we get there? Wow that would be a huge push!

Failed Moves

2008-07-31T11:40:00.000-05:00

The general markets are showing us failed moves up and down. Traders with a higher risk should consider initiating long positions for the short term. Positions I'm eye balling:

DIG
SPWR
IWM
UNG
FCX
GOOG

I expect DIG to pull back to the $86 ish area. I wanted in at $78 and never got it. Pull the trigger at $86 if you can get it either today or tomorrow.

Very neutral market... my view on energy

2008-07-29T12:25:00.001-05:00

Looks like a very neutral market...big down day yesterday, big rally underway today. Personally I think the pullback in the energy and commodity sectors is a great opportunity to buy. Financials and Homebuilders still have a long road to recovery AND the dollar will continue its decline. Long term, you should be buying energy and commodity issues. Short term its anyone's guess as to what the market is doing. Watch DIG, I like it in the high $70s if we can get it. UNG is reversing today...it might be setting up for a nice swing long position. I have LVS puts going into earnings tomorrow. If the stock stays strong through tomorrow ahead of the call tomorrow night, I will need to buy some stock as a hedge

Score 2 in a row for the bulls!!!! Good job guys

2008-07-17T14:14:00.000-05:00

Today should end on a positive note...45minutes to go as I right. I was in and out of several issues today including USO, FCX, DUG, FXP, GS, and EBAY. 4 for profits and 2 for losses. Bought some August GOOG calls. And bought some UNG for the long haul. I see no reason to hold trades overnight unless you are holding short oil or long financials (since u would be playing with the 'houses money' at this point).

I think this is a major opportunity to get long some commodities on this pullback. I'm going to wait until Monday or Tuesday of next week to revisit these trades. FCX under $98! lol!

Moving the last 3 days

2008-07-16T14:31:00.001-05:00

I've been moving across town (moving up that is) so I've been absent from trading. A very nice rally spurred today by Wells Fargo. The question is, "will it continue?". I suspect the financials will give us a mixed bag this quarter and selling pressure will probably remain as folks pull out $$ to pay off debt and their houses. The $$ they are pulling is primarily going to come from commodities and this will give us a very nice entry point. I'm not sure when that point will be but I'm confident it will be before the election. 1250-1260 on the S&P is the spot to watch. If we make it through that then 1310-1330 may come fast.

I see no reason to keep trades overnight yet unless you are going to swing a commodity stock like FCX, MON, or POT. But I'd just let them come down.

Cash is king

2008-07-11T09:14:00.000-05:00

People buying U.S. equities are mere speculators at this point. What is the reason to buy? The only answer I find is because equities are cheaper than they have been (bottom picking). If this is the bottom and you are buying, then congrats to you! I see no catalysts to drive stocks higher. Institutions won't be buying until next year...some may enter this fall depending on how much damage Obama will do to the markets.

I'm keeping trades intraday as usual primarily on the short side. I really like natural gas for the long term.

One day rally?

2008-07-09T08:20:00.000-05:00

Today we will see if U.S. equities can put it together for two days in a row. I'm skeptical. After all, not much has changed other than cheaper equities. I actually think it is a good time to buy commodities on the dip (NOTHING HAS CHANGED). Consider the dip:

MON
POT
FCX
XME
GLD
DE
ATI
KOL
XTO
UNG
USO

Also, watch FXI/FXP. FXI is touching its upper trend line (intermediate term). FXP might be worth a trade going into tomorrow if equities can't hold.

Guessing bottoms is impossible-- don't do it

2008-07-07T17:03:00.001-05:00

Volatility is picking up and therefore we are nearing a near term bottom. Nevertheless, this is a very difficult market. I think traders will stick with what works for the time being = sell everything except oil, ag, and pm trades.
I'm Long
DDM
FXP
SRS
USO

Update

2008-06-26T08:45:00.001-05:00

Trades today:

I sold AU this morning...probably prematurely but I'm up $2/share on a nice bottom scalp.
Bought MON yesterday around $128 and sold this morning just over $134.
Sold some of my FCX at $118.20.

Markets remain weak as the financials were looking for an "all clear" sound from the Fed. They DID NOT get it. Fed did not raise rates. Therefore, we are probably looking at a continuation of what has been happening for the past 9 months= sell financials, cyclicals, retail and buy oil, ag, pms. Remember: in a bear market try to keep your trades quick intraday if possible.

KEEP an eye on the pharmas! pull up a weekly of PPH! This is a defensive play and typically a good one when the Dems look to take over office! Back to $77-80 by January is possible.

Finally able to log in....summer duldrums

2008-05-27T15:51:00.000-05:00

The summer duldrums are now in place. Oil is coming down off of its highs and what was once the leadership is now weighing on the general market. As a result traders will shift into Financials, cyclicals, and tech. The big insititutions will keep their 50% cash or so not buying into his market. I can't blame them, why should we buy now for the long run? The next few months will probably be boring.

looking at the following:

long WFR
holding FMCN
holding OMG
holding DUG
holding PBW
holding PPCO
holding PID
FCX, DBA, POT, XME, and AUY will come down and I will be looking to scalp near supports.

Breakouts

2008-05-15T08:44:00.000-05:00

Covered POT yesterday at $198.60. Looks like its breaking out today. phew.
sold the remainder of KONG today at $5.10. It ran up way too fast and I'm not going to gamble through earnings. Still holding DUG.

I'm looking to long POT now.
NTES, SINA, PCLN and SMN are looking ripe.

I will not short until next week. Mkt. is strong this week with options tomorrow.

update

2008-05-14T10:46:00.000-05:00

added more to the POT short at $203.25. I will cover at $204.10 for a stop on this.

lets see how it plays out. Stocks are very strong today so this might not work out.

I had to sell a few thousands shares of KONG at $4.80 because I had 8% profits. I'm still holding a lot of KONG and still holding DUG

Ags Commodities will pull back

2008-05-14T09:46:00.000-05:00

Added to POT short at $201.20
sold SMN at $29.25
holding KONG
holding DUG

I think oil is done moving higher for a while (meaning until about July 1st). I think the rest of the ag and commods will follow.

lets see what happens

Institutions still holding 45% cash

2008-05-13T20:28:00.000-05:00

Those are the facts and they are also going to continue holding that cash through the summer. Be prepared for sideways action for sometime to come.

I'm short POT
long DUG
long KONG
long SMN

My stop in POT is $204.10. It is having a lot of trouble trying to clear $200. I'd like to see $170 on the next leg down. I think oil will pull back, hopefully this week. KONG is an earnings play and a long play on the weekly indicators. SMN is a technical overnight play.