Monday, March 31, 2008
WMT, WFR, UYG, CROX, YHOO
These five will be on my radar early tomorrow. Look to long anyone one of those. I will sit out the first 30 minutes to get a feel for it all and absorb any news that comes out. I will also keep an eye on solars to see if they remain hot. An up market early will most likely keep me out unless I see short potentials.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Nice Retracement today
1. The S&P wonderfully hit support at 1315 late today. The IWM and the QQQQ did the same. Volume was low again. I'm actually quite surprised that the bulls have not been able to muster more power! It is the end of the quarter and we aren't even close to DOW 12700 (which is where I thought the bears would enter again). If the bulls couldn't bring it up today I don't see how Monday could be any different. We have further to go....it may not be Monday, but it will be coming.
2. UWM...hmmm... I thought the open would bounce more than it did and that is why I bought UWM at yesterday's close. I'm thankful for the little bounce that we did get so I could get out at a tiny profit. The initial open was weak and I immediately felt we would fall today so I got out of UWM. FXP has me quite confused over the past few trading sessions. I almost got in this morning at $91 because that is a tad below its lower trend channel. As I was watching that, STP decided to break out again today so I snagged shares just a tad over $40. I was going to let this run to see if it could move to fill the gap near $43.30, but I soon had $1.50/share profit staring me in the face with a lot of downard pressure in the markets. So I bailed at $41.38 in a nice disciplined way. FXP remained in a small upward channel today and I was in and out twice during the afternoon for profits of $0.70/share and $0.65/share. I'm confused by the bullish action in the FXI stocks, I opted to just stay away after that. Not a bad day for me at all.
3. I was eyeying CROX, YHOO, UWM (again), and UYG near the close. I opted to hold no positions over the weekend. We could bounce off of this retracement, but I'm seeing little reason to get long yet. UYG is very enticing, especially at its support $29.73. UYG may be entering a little consolidation between here and $29. The next support isn't until $27. But, I'm seeing little reason why this $29.73 support should hold. We have a failed move in financials and the indices-- and with failed moves come strong downward moves. I'm still electing to keep my trades intraday.
Have a great weekend.
2. UWM...hmmm... I thought the open would bounce more than it did and that is why I bought UWM at yesterday's close. I'm thankful for the little bounce that we did get so I could get out at a tiny profit. The initial open was weak and I immediately felt we would fall today so I got out of UWM. FXP has me quite confused over the past few trading sessions. I almost got in this morning at $91 because that is a tad below its lower trend channel. As I was watching that, STP decided to break out again today so I snagged shares just a tad over $40. I was going to let this run to see if it could move to fill the gap near $43.30, but I soon had $1.50/share profit staring me in the face with a lot of downard pressure in the markets. So I bailed at $41.38 in a nice disciplined way. FXP remained in a small upward channel today and I was in and out twice during the afternoon for profits of $0.70/share and $0.65/share. I'm confused by the bullish action in the FXI stocks, I opted to just stay away after that. Not a bad day for me at all.
3. I was eyeying CROX, YHOO, UWM (again), and UYG near the close. I opted to hold no positions over the weekend. We could bounce off of this retracement, but I'm seeing little reason to get long yet. UYG is very enticing, especially at its support $29.73. UYG may be entering a little consolidation between here and $29. The next support isn't until $27. But, I'm seeing little reason why this $29.73 support should hold. We have a failed move in financials and the indices-- and with failed moves come strong downward moves. I'm still electing to keep my trades intraday.
Have a great weekend.
10 AM central
Out of UWM basicly at break even. Feels like indices want and need to go lower, I think we will break that Fib level. Solars still on fire. STP broke above $40 and I put a toe in like I did with YGE yesterday. I'm going to be a little more greedy with this one see if we can't fill that gap and test $44 up there. UYG inticing at $30 ($29.73 is the actual support) but the financials are just too weak right now.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Up Down Up Down
1. This will be a quick post as I have about nothing to really discuss. This market is really just a mess. It seems the market is wandering in a 'fairly' tight trading range this week and many elected to sell ahead of tomorrows jobs numbers. 1325 was the close on the S&P and also marks a support line. Keep an eye on 1320 as a more meaningfull measure.
2. As I stated yesterday, I held FXP overnight against my better judgement. Instead of locking in the profit yesterday at $101 I took a small loss at $97. It made new lows all morning and I put another order in at $92 but it never reached that level. Had I held it all day I'd be about even on that trade. Solars remained on fire today as they had all week. YGE broke out mid morning and I snagged shares at $18.24 on the break over $18.20. I sold them an hour later at $18.90. IWM keeps hitting fib levels. I picked some UWM up at the close to see if this same pattern continues tomorrow and to see if it bounces off of that fib level again.
3. Not much I'm eyeing for tomorrow. If the markets bounce I'd like to short. I'd really love to see FXP in the low $90s to grab some shares. I'd like to see UYG test $30. I'd be looking for a quick entry around there.
2. As I stated yesterday, I held FXP overnight against my better judgement. Instead of locking in the profit yesterday at $101 I took a small loss at $97. It made new lows all morning and I put another order in at $92 but it never reached that level. Had I held it all day I'd be about even on that trade. Solars remained on fire today as they had all week. YGE broke out mid morning and I snagged shares at $18.24 on the break over $18.20. I sold them an hour later at $18.90. IWM keeps hitting fib levels. I picked some UWM up at the close to see if this same pattern continues tomorrow and to see if it bounces off of that fib level again.
3. Not much I'm eyeing for tomorrow. If the markets bounce I'd like to short. I'd really love to see FXP in the low $90s to grab some shares. I'd like to see UYG test $30. I'd be looking for a quick entry around there.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Market does not want to decide but it will have too
Another interesting day where the mkt essentially can't decide which direction to go (even though we closed down). From where I sit I see a market that still needs to go lower.
1. Volume was uninspiring again today. Commodities exploded higher, financials and homebuilders sold off, more negative news, and CNBC keeps drinking the grape cool aid. Nothing new if you ask me. This market has not bottomed yet from a technical perspective. Toward the end of the day we got a spike up in equities. This was not short covering even though CNBC reported it that way. This was program buying. Don't confuse those two.
2. I'm still relatively neutral from a trading standpoint. I'd like to short on opportunities. My eyes have not changed since yesterday although I'm adding ABX to the list of short candidates. I'd like to see it hit $46 first.
3. I thought I had zero positions going into today but noticed I left 400 shares of SRS on the table in one of my accounts. I had originally bought it Monday at $92.50 and I had thought I sold it all yesterday at $95. Well i lucked out and sold the rest again at $95 today. I almost stuck my toe in UNH today because it is so beat up but decided against it because so many other things I'm trading are working too well. I did stick my toe (more like two legs) in AAPL briefly today as it broke to the HOD about 11:00am @$144. I was so concerned that it took over an hour to reach $145 so I sold it right there at $144.98. After that, nothing really striked my attention and I thought the mkt was just having another depressing day. I put in a buy on FXP at $99 and went to a meeting. At 2:40 it was trading at $101 after my buy was filled earlier. This was a nice profit but I'm thinking that the Asian markets will fall tonight so I decided to hang onto it overnight. This is really against my better judgement as i rarely hold short positions overnight (and any position, for that matter, in a bear mkt.).
1. Volume was uninspiring again today. Commodities exploded higher, financials and homebuilders sold off, more negative news, and CNBC keeps drinking the grape cool aid. Nothing new if you ask me. This market has not bottomed yet from a technical perspective. Toward the end of the day we got a spike up in equities. This was not short covering even though CNBC reported it that way. This was program buying. Don't confuse those two.
2. I'm still relatively neutral from a trading standpoint. I'd like to short on opportunities. My eyes have not changed since yesterday although I'm adding ABX to the list of short candidates. I'd like to see it hit $46 first.
3. I thought I had zero positions going into today but noticed I left 400 shares of SRS on the table in one of my accounts. I had originally bought it Monday at $92.50 and I had thought I sold it all yesterday at $95. Well i lucked out and sold the rest again at $95 today. I almost stuck my toe in UNH today because it is so beat up but decided against it because so many other things I'm trading are working too well. I did stick my toe (more like two legs) in AAPL briefly today as it broke to the HOD about 11:00am @$144. I was so concerned that it took over an hour to reach $145 so I sold it right there at $144.98. After that, nothing really striked my attention and I thought the mkt was just having another depressing day. I put in a buy on FXP at $99 and went to a meeting. At 2:40 it was trading at $101 after my buy was filled earlier. This was a nice profit but I'm thinking that the Asian markets will fall tonight so I decided to hang onto it overnight. This is really against my better judgement as i rarely hold short positions overnight (and any position, for that matter, in a bear mkt.).
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The very first post of this blog.
The first post for this blog. I thought some of you would like some things that I do, so I decided to have my own blog. I will post my exact trades from time to time so that you may see what I'm doing. Unfortunately many of these will be after the fact. Most of my posts will be in the following format:
1. My thoughts on the general market and market averages.
2. Trades I'm looking to make.
3. Trades I actually made with some reflection. (Note, I rarely hold a position overnight in a bear market)
This post will be quick. As the market averages flirt with their 50 day moving averages I'm taking a neutral stance for the most part. Today I felt the closing numbers were meaningless. We are at the 50 DMA but the volume has been weak. I have zero open trading positions at the close today (obviously my long term investments won't be sold very often).
I'm looking to short heavily on a short term basis, my eyes are on SRS, XHB, COH, OIH, and FXP primarily for some entry points.
Briefly, I bought and sold STP today (in at $37 and out at $38). I bought and sold TWM twice for a dollar gain both times. I also bought SOLF a tad over $12 and sold at $12.50 for a nice intraday gain.
For those of you who don't know, I'm a huge fan of ETFs. 70% of my trades will be using ETFs.
1. My thoughts on the general market and market averages.
2. Trades I'm looking to make.
3. Trades I actually made with some reflection. (Note, I rarely hold a position overnight in a bear market)
This post will be quick. As the market averages flirt with their 50 day moving averages I'm taking a neutral stance for the most part. Today I felt the closing numbers were meaningless. We are at the 50 DMA but the volume has been weak. I have zero open trading positions at the close today (obviously my long term investments won't be sold very often).
I'm looking to short heavily on a short term basis, my eyes are on SRS, XHB, COH, OIH, and FXP primarily for some entry points.
Briefly, I bought and sold STP today (in at $37 and out at $38). I bought and sold TWM twice for a dollar gain both times. I also bought SOLF a tad over $12 and sold at $12.50 for a nice intraday gain.
For those of you who don't know, I'm a huge fan of ETFs. 70% of my trades will be using ETFs.
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