Happy New Year!

Goodbye 2009, Hello 2010!

I'm long QID today 12/30/09. The risk reward just seems to be there. Exit at $20 for sure, or if you are willing to hold a while, you might get $28.

Good trading to you all.

T

2009 will be in the record books

What a rally off the lows this year. Lots of money has been made...and lost. Bears sorta owned Thanksgiving thanks to the dive on Black Friday. Bulls just may sorta own Xmas in the same way...we will see.

Where I stand?

Gold is obviously going parabolic, markets are overbought and continue to get overbought.

The path of least resistance is higher.

The rally is hard to believe and I have not traded much the past month.

I'm going to sorta stick to this strategy of not doing much unless we see big up or down moves in the currency and stock markets.

Good luck out there!
you can email me with thoughts questions: tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

Bears say they have Control

Let price speak for itself.

They very well might end up having control. To me, it looks like we are consolidating again.

Lets see how it plays out.


Historically,

Bears own Thanksgiving

Bulls own Christmas

Gold Breakout

Okay folks (if anyone reads this blog). I expected an SPY rise to 105-105.50 on this bounce so that I could short heavily. As of this writing, I am not short because we are over those levels. However, that being said I will short at the close if it looks like the S&P will close under 105.50.

Gold's breakout today is something to watch for two reasons 1. It has been highly anticipated 2. The dollar is not making new lows. 3. Sometimes breakouts are failures resulting in monsterous down moves.
Although 3 is probably unlikely it is something to be aware of.

So what now?
I'd like to see true capitulation in the dollar, a true parabolic move in equities, and maybe a parabolic move in Gold. At this time I want to short so parabolic moves will be nice entries for the short side. I'm expecting a large down move between the time this happens and Thanksgiving. If this moves happens I will be loading heavily into the falling: SRS and SRS November calls, FXP, TZA, and DUG

stay tuned.

MGM

Is it me or does MGM looked primed for a run to $20?

Q&A

How do you find your trades?

I keep a large basket watchlist (which continuosly is updated).
Some are news driven each day.
Sometimes I follow other traders ideas through blogs or those that I know personally.
Sometimes it is a 'feel' trade.

I rarely short stocks. I mean, the markets have always gone higher over the long run. Anytime you short no matter what, the odds are already against you. When short I use inverse ETFs. Shorting stocks has not worked for me.

How do go about placing stops?

Here's the thing, I know the stop before I know the entry. Sometimes the stop is just below support which I think has been the most effective. Sometimes its just the LOD. A lot of it depends on how long I'm willing to hold. What everyone should know: you can recover from a 3% loss. You can recover from a 5% loss. You can even recover from a 10% loss. But you can't recover from a 25%+ loss. Use stops even if they are mental ones.

Is it true that MMs like to run stops?

Yes, this is true to some degree but not in the sense you think. Stock prices are all based on supply and demand. So, it really isn't manipulation like some people think. If for instance if MGM is trading at $8.10 and the previous day's low is $8.03 and there is widely known support at $8.00 then most traders will have stops at $7.99 and $7.98. If demand for the stock is low between $8 and $8.10, the MM will not hesitate to run those stops because of the low demand. Demand typically increases when the price declines and a volume surge on the stop run will bounce it right back up. Sometimes traders see this as manipulation and get frustrated. A good rule of thumb is that if your stop is tight make sure it is not set at a 'widely known' level. Mental stops avoid this problem altogether but could hurt you should the stock turn one way on a news driven event.

Who are the top 3 traders in the country?

1. Goldman Sachs
2. Eric Bolling
3. Anyone else who is currently on an unbelievable run

If you subscribe to Trader Monthly magazine, you will get the idea. In my opinion, GS leads the pack in every category and Eric Bolling has had tremendous results that most will never have.

Who are the top 3 blog traders?

This is difficult because a lot of results are not known. Based on my experience, I'd go with the following:
1. Z stock http://www.zstock7.com/
2. Traderbean http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
3. Tim Knight http://www.slopeofhope.com/

I have no idea if these traders are the three best but based on everything I have seen, most of the information made public on these blogs would have made traders a ton of cash.

Will Obama get reelected?

I hope not. I doubt it. But you know, the masses are asses.

Positions

Here is what I like, watching, or am holding:

KONG: absolutely strong over the past year, watch $14 level
TIE: watch the $9 level, it looks to be opening above this morning...$12 may come quick
C: critical level, $5
MGM: critical level $10
JAZZ: momentum
SVA: swine flu momentum
FXP: for downside in the mkts
UNG: nice 10% pop past two days, $11 should be troubling for UNG
ERTS: in and out
ENER: in and out nice 20%+ pop yesterday
LEAP: buy in low 17s...going to $20
VG: long term lotto, just signed deal with Apple
ESLR: lotto type play, I think if solars can get hot again it will see $4.50

What Everyone Thinks

Everyone thinks that the bear market of 2001-2003 will yield a similar pattern in charts during this recession.
Here's the sorta things you hear that verify this:
"retest of the lows"
"V shaped recovery"
"W shaped recovery"
"10% pullback this month"
"next leg down"

C is for Cookie but N is for Noway in hell. Nobody knows what is going to happen and the sooner you all get this into your head, the better off you will be.

If I had a gun to my head, I'd say we go up to DOW 11,000 or even 12,000 next year. Then, we we will slam into the lows and make fresh lows with an eventual DOW of 4000 or even 5000.

In the meantime, keep buying low and selling'em high! If you can't do it right, then don't do it!

Swine Flu

If half of Americans are going to get the Swine Flu and Half of Americans are currently underwater with their mortgages, how does this bull rally continue?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8_2nrwYD1kM

I admit, I sold my Oil long today just after Gold's selloff. 1. I had good gains 2. The selloff intrady in Gold and Equities spooked me. 3. I can't figure out why Gold is not breaking out.
Basicly, I got more bearish today. 4. Money is flowing into Treasuries again--this is a biggy.

I'm net short again. Sheesh, will i ever learn. I'm sure Goldman will end up being right about Oil, and that will be fine because i will be all over it short up at $85.

We Found Out the Result

It was another Buy the Dip this past week.

Now what?

I'm expecting profit taking going into Labor Day. People are going to need money for their vacations, economy still sucks, and the market has rallied 50%. In my opinion, only a fool would not take profits ahead of the holidays in this climate.

The real question is: what does the 3rd Quarter look like for earnings? Does the fake economy keep pushing up stocks with artificial earnings or has the smoke and mirrors ran its course? If we pass DOW 10,000, I'll probably mortgage the home to go short.

"Buyer Beware"...this should be a government mandated phrase posted on all stock transactions.

I'm Long oil
I'm Long C
I'm Long SRS
Holding lots of Cash

Buy the Dip or ready to Drip?

We find out how long this dip lasts very soon. Keep those stops tight. There haven't been too many dips on the is run up from March so watch for dip buyers. I'm still bear minded however.

Goldman Sachs Hedge Funds

Here is what they are doing:

Long Oil

Short Oil Refiners

Short U.S. Dollar

Short Yen

Short Japan

1100-1200 S&P is what they all say

Now that everyone is bullish, and I mean everyone (the bears are even buying), the correction is in sight.

IYR: $39-$40 area is great to enter short.

I don't think we will see 1100 on the S&P.

The dollar will find a near term bottom soon.

If the S&P gains another 7%, then back up the truck short because that will be a 50% up in the S&P since the lows.

Get short soon and walk away. Check your account in 2 months.

All systems go

The bulls have all systems go: H&S pattern failure, resistance breached, the entire media talking about how Ben Bernanke has saved the world, and rising oil with a falling dollar.

Heck if you can't beat them, join them.

A lot of bears have been hurt recently by this up move we are in. I would be lying if I said I hadn't been hurt. I have had some winners but more losers than I typically get. Sometimes that happens and we just have to brush off and try again. So what am I looking at?

Keep your eye on the dollar, as long as it is heading south then equities should do fine. But it will soon fine a intermediate term bottom so if you are bullish just be prepared with your stops. As your position profits, just raise your stops to lock in the gains. Here is what I am trading:

SRS...watch IYR which could run to $39 making SRS attractive again.
UNG...will run sometime, probably a continued buy on a ticks under $13
TZA...3x bear IWM
TNA...3x IWM
UCO...this is double long oil
STP...breakout in progress, watch a reversal be defensive
JASO...possible breakout, watch it
KONG...broke last week but ended the week soft
HIG ...I had nice gains last week on this but exited too soon...I'm watching for a breakout

Is everybody in?

I'm getting that feeling again, where I need to ask, "Is everybody in?"

7 straight up days for the S&P...even though volume has been low, prices have gone up and bears have been hurt.

Based on the good numbers coming from tech land this quarter, I think it is fairly obvious what Americans have been doing with stimulus money. They have not been paying down their mortgages with it like they are supposed to...nope, they have been shopping for electronics.
Artificial earnings are now complete! Or are they? Perhaps we get another quarter of artificial earnings, after all, the Fed pumped massive amounts of money into our system.
Here's what I'm trading:

UNG
SRS
FXP
KONG
DIG
DUG
ERY
TNA
TZA

KONG

What a run this stock has had. $3 to $11.50 in a fairly short period of time. The upward move has been steady and long overdue IMO. This is a quality growth gaming company in China and a very possible takeover candidate. It has broken resistance. I'm looking for a move to $14.50 ish.

$11.20 was the resistance and it closed above this price Friday.

The Market

Well, the action after the Fed through Thursdays close is certainly not positive for the bears. I think it is reasonable to assume that we are heading toward $94.40 on SPY which coincides with a gap fill from June 15th and a top resistance. $93 to $93.20 could be a right shoulder top should we get there, but I just see this weeks action as bullish enough to push us higher than that.

All in all the jury is still out on the indices.

I still like USO short. Although my thoughts on deflation have been wavering back and forth. At times I think it has further to go, but at other times I think it has ran its course. For instance, last week I bought another computer for $600. I bought that same computer in 2004 for $2200. Things like this make me think its over. But, then I look at car prices which have barely budged since 2004 and I think we have further to go.

I'm lacking sleep today. The market doesn't know what to do. Keep buying low and selling high.

MGM

I still like the oil short.

UNG, I would want to be a buyer up until about $13.30

MGM: Gave it another try today at $5.60.

I think MGM has the potential to double or even triple with some good news over the coming months.

Short Oil, Patience Needed

Oil sitting right near its trendline. USO break below $38 is shortable. You can short now with a stop above $40. I would wait for a break below $38 because $40 is resistance and there is too much unrest in Iran making the headlines. Oil inventories tomorrow as well as CPI #s.USO is getting very close to coming down. There is a tiny gap from November that remains unfilled at $41.42. I originally thought (2 weeks ago) that USO would make a run for that gap making a false breakout, giving an excellent short entry though DTO or SCO.USO short is a no brainer. If you short it up there and are wrong, well then, we will be in a depression and it won't matter anyway. lol. My guess is that Obama will end the oil run somehow.

$42.60 and $50 are the two resistance levels above $40 for USO. I'd say shorting USO at $41.42 with stop at $42.70 would be a very nice way to play it. Of course, it still needs to get that high.
resistance after $50 is $69.It is really an argument of the dollar strength and Inflation/deflation. Everyone is screaming inflation but foreign nations bought our 30 year bonds without a blink of the eye last Thursday (that is deflationary). If you were a large foreign investor worried about inflation, you wouldn't buy 30 year bonds. Either that or they know something that we don't know. I think the dollar's ultimate low is in for several years and deflation has NOT ran its entire course. Therefore, oil is going down (eventually). I'd be surprised if USO gets back to $50 but then again its peak was $120.

--watch the dollar
--watch SPX
--watch oil

Buy Low and Sell High

In a market this boring, we can easily lose site of a simple fact: buy low and sell high. If you are making overnight trades or daytrades and are experiencing profits, I suggest you take them when you have them. The upside is very contained here as the S&P struggles to regain new highs...but the more it bumps up against it, the more likely it is to break and when it breaks it will probably be huge. The downside is also contained. What you ask? The dips are being bought, S&P support is not defined at this juncture...a break of prior daily lows at 923.85 is a must for the bears to take back control. And even if that level breaks, the bulls could bid it back up. So, we have major sideways containment at this point and if you are trading, take profits when you have them because the profits are hard to come by during this period.

I am short the S&P via SDS. My stop is just above the highs on the S&P or the lows for SDS. This rally is impressive and is now going on 35 days during this cycle. The average trough to trough which is 39 days. From the bottom, we are actually on day 65. Odds of a reversal are increasing rapidly. Make no mistake about it, this IS a bear market that we are in and equities will pull back again. They are very capable of putting in a fresh low as well.

BAC
USO
UUP
IYR
UNG
TBT
SRS
XLF
SPY
SDS
URE


good luck out there

S&P 500

The monthly chart of the S&P 500 looks bullish.

Will it be sell in May and walk away? The sideways action over the past month could be consolidation before moving higher.

A break of 950 on the S&P should shoot stocks up to 1050 on the S&P rather quickly.

UNG

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ung&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0

http://www.futuresbuzz.com/natgaslt.html

Natural Gas is a great long term buy right now.

In the second chart you can see the volatility associated with NG. It is known for 100%-300% in a year's time. NG has been hovering around 3.50 recently, a huge tail not pictured in graph #2.

If we post a reversal here, you made a great buy.

My stop is just below the April lows

Memorial Day

Monday is the holiday, and tomorrow could be quiet. Last year it was a big down session.

Today we tested support on the S&P (close enough) and it held (again). We will get through it.

What was TenYear trading each day the past few sessions?

OIH
INTC
SRS
URE
FXP
FAZ
FAS
LNC
BAC
AUY
UCO

I leave whoever is reading this blog with this:

THE MARKET DOES THE MOST OBVIOUS THING IN THE MOST UNOBVIOUS WAY

Markets are all mixed up

As I write, the DOW is up over 200 points and the S&P is over 905.
One could argue what a wonderful shorting opp today is. After all, where did this rally come from? On the other hand, the bulls are saying, "Hey fellas, we have held 880 and the government is saying that the worst is over!"

Here is my stance:

The primary trend is still down (we are still in a bear market). Resistance and support are both being hit on a daily basis. Keep your eye on the dollar as it hovers around support. If it holds, equities will fall. If it doesn't hold, I think we are in for a monster rally over the coming weeks.

Stay nimble.

900 Level S&P

876-880 looks to be the next support under 900

Much needed Weakness is Here

Waiting for this weakness was like waiting for a much needed rain in the summer. We all knew it would eventually happen, but we just didn't know when. I'm using this weakness to scalp some shorts intraday primarily.
Surprisingly the volume has been low on this pullback. I'm also rapidly going through charts to find long setups.


good luck out there. Its OPEX week so don't be surprised to see lots of chop.

This Market Smells

Everyone was afraid to buy on the way down.

Everyone is afraid to short on the way up.

Fundamentals have not changed. We WILL retrace down. But when....

if anyone has a crystal ball, leave it here please.

Is Everybody in?

"Is everybody in, the ceremony is about to begin. Is everybody in, the music is about to begin......
This is the end my beautiful friend
the end.
This is the end my beautiful friend
the end."

..the words of the late Jim Morrison. The market has me singing this. I don't know why, maybe because this is the biggest rally in the shortest amount of time that the stock market has ever seen.

I keep thinking that once everybody is on board, the selloff will begin again.

I sold many longs today. Maybe the rally will continue, we could argue to as high as 1100 or even 1200 on the spx. Keep your eyes open.

What I'm Looking At

I'm watching or trading long the following: (I rarely trade short a stock)

ENER
XLF
IYR
EXPE
RYL
VMC
STZ
ACL
JEC
ACI
ZNH
SMG
DV
NEM
LNC
BAC
OIH


--take a look at those charts and see if you can't find a long entry somewhere

I'm Tired

Its late so these points will be brief and frank.

1. I'm not a traditional bear
2. Markets are getting VERY extended
3. Oil will not reach $70 this year and this trade is dead
4. I'm expecting an all time slow market this summer
5. It is very possible that we may not head lower until the Fall
6. UNG is a great long term buy at these levels.....hurricane season is still a ways off, but UNG should climb into it. I don't know when it will start.

Vacation Time

I'm outta here the rest of the week. On to Seattle, then Hawaii, with a nightly stop in Vegas on the way home!

What I like:

long OIH
long DXD
long SLV
long KONG
long WFC
long UYG

Wait for confirmation of a top

It seems all of the bears are gearing up to put the hammer down and are calling for an intermediate term top.
My advice: wait for confirmation. It will come in the form of a daily reversal or a one day large volume decline. We haven't seen more than two days in row down since the rally began. With all of the earnings this week my best guess says that this is the week than we either: Explode much higher assuming the rise or we reverse lower to resume the major downtrend.

Either way, I'd be a buyer of June puts across the board in stocks and/or indices to play an eventual fall or correction.

I'll be out of town past Tuesday....

good luck

OPEX week

The hangover from last week's party should carry us into Wed. I expect Wed through Friday to show us continued upside and for the SPY to top out around 87.50-88.03 for an intermediate swing high.

May through August will be a boring grind lower which may not produce new lows.

Thats my take on the markets, now lets see how wrong I am;).

I'll be playing most of the same symbols I've been using:

WFR
TSL
SRS
URE
SKF
WFC
FCX
UCO
UNG

...keep your eye on the dollar

Not Much will move the market this week

It is a Holiday week. Expect lower volume. One potential market mover this week is
AA reporting earnings Tuesday after the bell. All they need to do is report in-line and the stock should move higher.
This might be a good week to step aside for a vacation.

I'm out of SRS for a nice profit.
I like the looks of X on the AA earnings.

The Castle is getting pretty high

SRS is sporting an identical breakdown candle as in December. Odds are high that we see a small move with consolidation. IYR might hit $34 or it might not. Either way, SRS is going back to $58 for sure, maybe even $75 on the next leg down in the market.

Most of my charts are showing Bollinger Band short trades. APPL to $120, OIH to $130, RIMM to $75, SKF to $50, XLF to $12.50, IYR to $34!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What? These are some of the projections I'm hearing from the bulls in the near term.

I think it is safe to say that these projections certainly are not ruled out, but the castle is getting pretty high and people are getting "comfortable" again.

Key resistances to watch this week:
IYR $29.60
XLF $10
OIH $88
WFR $19.20

Tough Market

Like I said a few posts ago, this is a tough market now. There is sooooooo much resistance above us it makes me sick to go long.
As for today's action, I'm not surprised by the late day profit-taking. The M2M news was sorta just shunned for the most part. My take is that the market tried to reverse in the afternoon and it failed. I think we closed neutral.
At this point, I'm not sure what else can make this market go up other than good earnings. I don't think earnings will improve until next quarter however.

I like the short scalps here as the market will hunt for a short term toppy top. We are short term overbought. Intermediate term we may see 860 or even 880 on the SPX.

Lets see what the market does after tomorrows job numbers.

M2M decision time

We will know tomorrow. 8AM eastern the meetings begin. We will also be getting updates from the G20 starting to roll in around 9AM and 10AM.

I expect a bullish early morning. No matter what comes of these meetings i think we sell off hard.
Here's the catch:
If M2M gets changed, you need to be a buyer of the selloff late in the day because next week we will explode higher.
UYG
XLF
BAC
WFC
...you know the financials. WFR looks really really juicy on its triangular breakout. No matter what, I'm longing WFR.

Market is much "harder"

Resistance on SPX is around 825-830 ish. But there is sooooooo much overhead resistance on almost every tick above that area too that it is going to take a lot of bull power to keep pushing higher.
I'm not sure what yesterday was all about (ya know the intraday downward draft and then sudden last 45 minute blast higher)...they sold the good news yesterday...they are buying the bad news today....we have a ton of overhead resistance....a ton of cash on the sidelines.....a decent amount of time for the government's circus schemes to take effect....bank stress tests looming in the near term...tax refunds coming out soon.....suffice to say that the market is getting "harder" to trade here.

Market Prediction for Monday

Today is Friday and its Quad witching day. I expect an absolute chop session.
S&P key resistance = 800
S&P key support = 750
We aint breaking either one of those today, but what about next week?

Bulls have some control right now and I see bull flags on the charts since this rally began. I suspect that options players are going to buy some puts on Monday for April, this means that they are going to buy stocks. What? How can this be? Well, you see thats how the game is played. They short stock and then buy calls for protection. Right now they need protection on the downside, so expect some put buying and additional stock buying. MtoM accounting is still a potential catalyst and I think many traders are not taking this lightly.

I'm going to be honest: I think we go higher next week.

USO
UNG
FAS
XLE
XLF
AUY
LNC
PRU

Bear Market Rally

These bear market rallies can last 2 months. Brace yourselves.

IDEAS:

USO could be breaking out
UNG is so cheap you should be able to buy it at the Dollar Store
Semis might try a break out....SMH or the double USD
UYM might have legs to $13.50
XME and the miners look very good

An interesting trade would be to long financials and short homebuilders.

Make no mistake about it, our economy is B-A-D and the Fed is buying "stuff" because rates can't get any lower. I'm not in the bull camp, but I'm careful of the bear market rallies.
I think the S&P must print at least 450 before we are out of the woods...at least from a valuation perspective. Right now an S&P of 23! Come on! Look at the economy! When the PE of the S&P is averaged in the single digits, we will talk bottoms.

The 5 keys to trading success

1. Patience

2. Entry Price

3. Recognizing the primary trend

4. Using mental stops to cut losses

5. Patience

What a rally!

I made a fortune the past 5 trading days. Just shy of $150,000.

I was in and out of the following stocks regularly:

LNC
HIG
WFC
BNI
UYG
FAS

I doubled my money in a UYG position that I had bought at $1.38 which made me a bundle.
But big gainer were my 2010 January $3 calls in FAS.

I think we are getting a little extended now although I'd most welcome a push to a little higher.

I'm looking at SRS and FAZ now as the market may come in a tad.

best of luck out there!

Market Sentiment

Why would long term investors sell now?

Many reasons. Obama's policies alone are vast and bearish. Long term YOU should be bearish.


However, market sentiment is soooooooooo bad right now. Everyone expects the market to go lower and really there is no reason to think that it won't. This means that you should not be shorting.

I'm currently exposed to the following longs and/or am looking to scalp longs in the following:

WFC
LNC
GE
BNI
RIMM: I like it at $30
UYG/FAS
PBW
BAC

Has the market priced in 15% unemployment or 10% unemployment? I think the market HAS priced in 4 years of Obama in the White House and 10% unemployment but not 15% unemployment.

We Bottom Soon

A near term bottom is near. I don't need to post a chart to illustrate because you know already what it looks like.

March historically has marked tops and bottoms alike.

Technicals are not showing capitulation or fear based selling yet. There is a chance we may not get capitulation here. I think we bottom this week (near term) whether we get fear based selling or not.

I think option calls as far out as Sept 2009 and January 2010 look extraordinary...especially in financials.

FXP is going up

Time to buy FXP right here at $42 or better.

FXI chart looks like phat bastard.

FXP chart looks pretty

China will not pull us out of the recession. FYI, China is dumping most U.S. investments.

I'm in FXP two days ago at $38.02. It was a day early. But now we are moving higher.

Rare up Day in the Market

I think today was a weak performance by the bulls. We struggled to test the first resistance level and then sold off hard at the end of the day.

This may be all the rally we get on this move up.

I'm still making my trades intraday, primarily on long scalps. At some point we will be able to turn those scalps into swings. But not yet.

This market needs to bottom and at this rate it could take another 52 weeks.

OBAMA

Since Obama was elected, the market is down 2000 points. The Stimulus money--what where and why has yet to be answered.
Tax payers are pissed. Tax payers need money.
Increasing the Capital Gains tax is still on the table. Taxing more on trades is still on the table.
Baby Boomers are now beginning retirement--they are selling like crazy.
Anyone who has bought since 1998 is now underwater.

This all results in long term holders selling massive amounts of positions in the open market and who can blame them? We are going to see some serious new lows in the market and it is coming quicker than most imagined. While we may get a short term bounce that is overdue, we are for sure heading south in a big way.

Don't blame me, I voted for McCain.
At least we can look forward to a new President in 4 years.

Oil

Markets look horrid. But today's inflation report should send shorts covering in oil. We have a bullish reversal (short term that is). Pull up your chart in USO, DXO, or UCO. UCO is best.

Everyone is expecting new lows in the indices.

And guess what that means?

go long. Pretty tough to short here.

No Mans Land Continues

Despite the huge 4% selloff in the markets yesterday after stimulus passage, we still remain
in a tough trading environment.

The sentiment out there is tilted bearish but a lot of analysts are calling for a dramatic rally as well.
New lows coming soon?
Breakout higher coming soon?

Its a tough call and I'm trading long scalps intraday right now.
What I'm looking at for scalps and swings:

AMR
LUV
BRKR
FRO
EXPE
USO
NRG
BGU
KO
XOM

thats all for now

No mans land

We remain in no mans land acrossed the indexes. Difficult to short, difficult to long.

XLF turned weak today and I think it is headed for at least a retest of lows.

What do I like from the long side even though?

UNG
UCO, DXO, USO
ENER
VMI (with caution) I sold out but the strength today makes me think it will run at that gap near
$46. Use a $40.98 stop.

February

Pessimism is high.

Financials have remained in a short term uptrend. $8.90 on the XLF is the line in the sand.

I like the long trade this week.

January is almost over

January has been difficult two years in a row.

I'm out of BIDU, GE, SSO, and FXI at minor profits.

I'm long the following:

MSFT
DXO


What I'm looking to buy:
BAC
STI
GE
KOL

there is a big rally out there some place....

Long

I'm long the following (with purchase price) going into the 3 day weekend. No short positions.

FXI: $25.10
SSO: Avg. $23
TEN: Avg. $2.20
DXO: Avg. $2.85
GE: $13.10

Goodbye George W. Bush

Much needed profit taking today

Why would anyone sell in January when they could have taken losses in December??

Stay trading on the long side. Too many catalysts this month for the market to sell off. Currently trading from the long side the following:

FAS
C
USO
SSO
TIF
BNI
LNC (be carefull here, it has gone from $6 to $25 in a month)
MOS
RIMM

While the market seems ripe to short up here, it would be riper near S&P 1050.

--don't use margin
--trade long side only if you have to