It is about time to move to 100% Cash

The market is about to pull back.  This could last a few months.  Expect a decent sized pull back in the neighborhood of 6%+ within the next 3 months.

Slowly moving to cash

T

Metals

To say the least, metals are on fire.  I have many IRA positions up 50%, 75%, and even 150% within a years time or less.  I don't think this is the final wave up in this sector, but it is getting stretched and I believe a pullback of some kind of magnitude will happen relatively soon.  What I'm going to do is take some profits here.  For instance, I'm going to keep my core GLD and SLV holdings but in my miners I'm going to sell a portion of individual names like EXK, SLW, and ABX.  Once we pullback, I'll allocate that cash into the broad indexes of GDXJ or GDX (which I already hold as well).

November elections turned out well and the GOP gained back the ground they needed.  Heck, Obama even apologized!  It is likely that the dollar will make all time lows sometime next year while stocks continue to rally.  The question investors need to ask themselves now is:  "When do we sell?"  After all, nobody will want to be holding when this all comes crashing down again.  My guess is, within the next two years we will need to sell.

I'm still not doing much trading.  After all, all the good buy entries have virtually vanished in the only bull sector still intact = PMs and miners.

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

Equities have broken out of a lengthy consolidation phase, which is very bullish.  The fall
in the dollar has only helped.  Nothing has changed:  Precious metals and miners continue to outperform.

The dollar is due for a bounce and stocks are due to decline.  Nothing has changed...the best odds are to be in precious metals because even a bounce in the dollar may not bring them down.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS:  historically the market rallies BIG time out of this.  The only problem I see is that the market is rallying into it.  I think it is prudent to expect some selling heading into November because of the uncertainty behind these elections.  If the GOP can capture a win here, I expect the market to exceed the previuos high.

SPY weekly: Big decision coming

Pull up a SPY weekly candlestick chart and you too will see the large descending triangle.

We are stuck between SPY 111 ish and SPY 105 ish.  For an exact chart go look at Traderbeans:
http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/

For me, I just use these levels as a guide as I profitably trade intraday.  Any buy and holds should be confined to gold, silver, and miners at this juncture.

What am I trading intraday?
TZA
TNA
FAZ
FAS
QID
QLD
UNP
SRS
AGQ
RIMM

HAPPY LABOR DAY WEEKEND!

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar-effects/stock-returns-around-labor-day/

September

Nice rally yesterday.  Small follow through today with divergence.  The bulls won yet another fight around 1040 S&P.  There has been a lot of fights there!  I'd hate to see when it breaks.

I think we pull back tomorrow a little.  An overnight short trade might work.

Overhead gaps to watch
SPY 109.78
SPY 112.30
SPY 115.89

Odds are good one of those will get filled even if we are in fact entering a new bear market.  There is a lot for the bulls to overcome here ( a lot of overhead resistance not too mention how bad the economic picture illustrates).

I remain a bull until the charts tell me otherwise, but I'm highly skeptical and I'm a believer that the bear will resume at some point.

No comment on the market...

Friday's Rally

Well, the bulls got a much needed bounce Friday.  I needed it.  I'm expecting a little bounce here from the markets.  S&P 1090 is what I'm looking at.  At that level my longs will be sold.  I'm wondering if Sept. won't give us a little head fake higher here before resuming downward.  I think a reasonable downside target if support is taken out would be S&P 940-960 area.

Precious metals and miners are the leaders.  All traders should know that.  Keep your eye on GLD, GDX, FCX, FXI, and SLV for general market clues and direction.

It is a tough market right now.

M&A activity

The market is in dire need of a news catalyst to take it sharply higher (bottom).  M&A is bringing in some buyers but it just doesn't seem to be enough quite yet.  Keeping stops tight here and getting stops hit....I think we move one way by Thurs-Fri and will know the direction then.  Until then, I offer you YHOO:

The chart looks fairly similar to MFE before they were bought out last week.  Who knows, it could happen.  After all, YHOO rejected 2008s bid from MSFT.  Icahn and company have been trying to stir things up and the CEO/founder even stepped down.  Clearly, YHOO is not pricing in any upside move...and neither did MFE.

$18 and $14.80 are obvious upside gaps in YHOO.  What would be a fair price?  I think some calls of the October-January variety might be prudent speculative plays here.  Who knows, maybe you will become a millionaire overnight on this spec play, just like George Soros became a billionaire overnight in 1992 by betting against the UK pound.

Volatility

107.60 SPY needs to hold on a close.

Else, 105-106 area is coming.

OPEX tomorrow so we could be just experiencing some near term volatility.

Keep those stops in place.

POLL: What is the easiest stock to trade?

Some traders use the same basket of stocks while others are open to anything.

I'd like to know (those of you who actually visit this blog) in your opinion, which stock is the
easiest to trade? Is there a stock that routinely gives you success? If so, post the stock that you think is the easiest to trade.

SPY

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned on Zstocks site that the SPY was heading
to 115.89.

1. Earnings have been good

2. Mid term elections underway (typically the market rallies out of these)

3. The Fed continues to inflate and rates are still near 0%

4. There is not a better alternative than stocks 2-3 years out.

115.89 is still my near term target for SPY. 126.00 is still possible by year end.

Watch the Head n Shoulders on the S&P

I'd rather be long right here right now. BUT, I'm very cautious of this H&S pattern
as we have rising volume on the decline into the right shoulder. The last H&S failed,
but the volume on this one is convincing.

I see potential in a lot of sectors now.


Be careful.

Energy hurting the S&P

In order for the S&P to get out of this slump it will need help from the energy sector.

Looks like sellers are pricing in a rare possibility of an offshore drilling hault.

Doubt it happens, but nonetheless OIH and components are severely broken. OIH is now in the process of putting in a yearly cycle low. Once this selling pressure subsides, GET SOME.
I'd be very surprised if OIH went below $87.

Mixed Signals Remain

The market is in bull mode....I THINK.

Last week the rising dollar AND rising precious metals/miners mixed with a sharp downturn in the indices is very telling that something big is brewing.

Get long the metals and miners.

February's lows need to hold in the S&P for this broad market to be "bull" otherwise under S&P 1040, expect a lot of selling and the resumption of the bear.

Regardless, metals and miners are in bull mode.

I think Bernanke has in fact avoided a deflationary depression.

Dollar up, Market up, PMs down

Nothing more to it.

Buy the dips but beware of the overbought scenerios. End of Quarter usually means pullback time. Lets see what happens.

It Is Finally Vacation Time

A lot of stuff going on this week. I'm just getting over the flu (thank the Lord) which lasted only(thank you Lord) about two days and just in time for me to take some much needed time off from the markets. Yes, I could take my computer with me, use hotel or resort computers, yada yada yada. But, the reality of it is that I get much more out of the vacation if I completely immerse myself in the vacation by eliminating anything relating to the markets (and a computer). And since I think this is a primo buying opportunity in the market (because i don't think another crash is happening anytime soon) I'm just going to get long a whole host of names and come back later. I can't say for sure when I will be back, but it for sure won't be until the first week of March at the earliest. I'm heading to several different cities to see family and friends, and then some R&R with the Mrs. Ten and little 14 month year old TenYear (they are joining me for the last week of the trip).

So what's going on? I've gone long today several names which include:

GDXJ
GDX
EXK
KGC
ABX
GLD
KONG
RIMM
(I sold CMC yesterday when stop was triggered, Nergo, but didn't post)
CELG

So, pretty heavy on the PMs. Near term there might be some pain in these PMs but it is my belief that the S&P won't correct much more than 10% off of its recent highs before moving on to higher highs. I think PMs will be the leaders yet again. I think a stronger dollar is an absolute joke given the massive amounts of liquidity the Fed has injected. I have stops in place but I seriously doubt they will get taken out.

So that being said, I'm outta here! Have a great February everyone! Good trading to you and enjoy your time in the markets! Don't be afraid to share what you are doing out there.

T

email: tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

VACATION DELAY

Vacation will wait until next month due to business this week. I'm going to Dallas, L.A., and then a stop in Denver.

Okay, so here is what I'm watching trading, I've closed most shorts yesterday:

MGM
DPTR
SRZ
UNG
ANO
IMGG
Fortune8...Fade ME
FMCN
FAZ
NLST
AMLN
JAZZ
EXK
SONC
RT

Lots of good setups out there...if you have questions or want feedback, just email me:
tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

good luck out there!

DOW 11200???

Market is getting way way way overbought, similar to the way way way oversold condition last March.
Thats right folks, even Pete Nagarian said on fast money tonight: "I haven't bought protection, because I'm just not worried about it."

Here's a tip: If you haven't been long through this rally it is too late to get involved. Wait for the pullback.

There is a chance we can get to 11200 on the DOW, and if we do I will not be experiencing it.

I'm about 20% short via QID, and SDS. I'm going on vacation (away from this bullish nonsense).

See ya in March

T

P.S. I will have access to my email: tenyeartrader@yahoo.com

good luck out there