Slow Monday, Lots of Economic data this week

Yawner today. I got back in SRS at $81.50. I think the mkts are a little extended here. The Fed releases their policy statement Wed. I'd say they are going to leave rates unchanged and will start addressing the inflation problem. At this point, it seems they are late to the party to cut further and if they did they would be risking further inflation. I don't think the markets are going to like the news this week and I would say that by Friday (Monday at the latest) this bear mkt. rally will be about done.
May through August is historically not the time to be long-- there just isn't much to move the markets higher, especially this year. I think the bears are going to use this to their advantage and really put the hurt on the bulls through most of May. True, its an election year, but I don't see any of them as good news for the stock market. Perhaps by August we will be done with the discounting to see a little year end rally. We will know then.

As for the rest of the week: I'm going to be out of town until next weekend. I'm going to be checking in periodically to see what my positions are doing and to see if I need to add anything. For the most part I'm just setting up for the next leg down and I'm assuming that we still have not seen the worst. What I fear most right now for the U.S. is a major terrorist attack. They like to strike when our economy is most vulnerable-- and I really hope that we don't see one.

best,
B

sold SRS at $83.33

thinking about V

New positions

AAPL decided to run after the morning. I try not to look back at trades because thats what they are-- trades. AAPL is a great long term hold and noboday can dispute it.

small position in HOKU at $8.25
small position in SPF at $5.25
overnight trade in SRS at $82

We all need to be careful on the short side since indices and many stocks are breaking out.

take care

sold AAPL at $164.60 for $3.45/share gain

FCX wants to go lower, be patient.

Ags/Commods rolling over.

1370 S&P needs to hold.

Crazy AAPL with great earnings

Well we found out today that there is no recession at AAPL. I'm probably going to sell my protection puts because I just don't see AAPL falling much if at all. The general indices have broken out and because of that I'm anticipating a broad mkt move higher into the start of May. This will help AAPL hold. So, as for my other half of the position, I'm going to see what tomorrow brings. I may blow out of it for a small gain or hang on for further upside.

FCX performed just as planned today. However, I'm targeting the $110 to $108 area for entry. FCX loves to sell off after earnings, and the best part of it is that it loves to recover fast.

thats all for now.

AAPL update Wed.

The last three days AAPL has traded between $158 and $168. As I write, we are right in between at $163.

I bought some puts for protection clear down at the $145 level. It will take a clear miss to move this stock down substantially. We may see very little change after hours. This is still a net long proposition for me. Should the stock move south without going under $145 before expiration, it will be a small loss for me.

good luck

AAPL update

Well, AAPL had a nice run Monday closing around the HOD. My target to unload was $170-$172. I didn't expect this big of a run on Monday so I closed out half of my position at $168. Obviously there was a reason for this run and I believe it is two fold. #1 a technical breakout. #2 earnings are going to be good. Anytime I can get that run in one day I'm taking profits and thats all there is to it.

So I still have half of my position which I'm comfortable holding through earnings. I'm still up about $2/share. (Some analyst had the balls to downgrade them two days before earnings so AAPL gave back about 4% Tuesday).

The rest of my premises still hold true. Should AAPL fall tomorrow to around $151 or better, I will buy more and in addition will buy puts at the $140 mark. If we trade between $151 and $170 (which will probably happen) I'm just going to sit on this position.

I'm also watching closely FCX earnings in the morning. They usually report fantastic results but the stock always gets killed. If thats the case, I'll be looking for a scalp early on.

Not so boring after all...AAPL, AAPL, AAPL

Okay, I didn't make many posts Wed. through Friday because I was really busy not only with trading but I'm looking at new cars to buy as well.
Buyers stepped up and we blew right through resistance in, i think, all of the indices. My trades have been quick and remain intraday. After all, the primary trend is still down. Everytime buyers step up and we move higher, I take profits fearing any potential downward pressure. Wed. through Friday I made quick profits by going long LAYN, FCX, CLF, and KLAC. Now, my eyes are on AAPL. I'm holding a small position right at $160. After the great news from INTC, IBM, and GOOG I felt that the $160 break would run AAPL to $172. Well, we didn't get there yet, but I think it may happen even before earnings come out. The only long position I'm concentrating on now is AAPL. We are flirting with 12900 on the Dow and that makes me even more nervous about downside risk. If AAPL hits $172 prior to earnings, well, thats probably going to be enough for me and I'll take profits. If it comes in prior to earnings, I may add more shares and hold through earnings-- with protection using puts. I'm expecting nothing but good news out of AAPL this week. To me, the trade in AAPL will be in the 3 days running up to earnings. If AAPL happens to trade below $160 going into earnings I may hold off buying more until the day of earnings. We will see how this plays out. I'm not expecting many other trades this week unless it is on the short side.

1. Long AAPL at $160.
2. If it closes near $160 on Monday, I'll add more.
3. If it runs higher from $161 on good volume I will not add.
4. If it breaks back below $160 I will not add until $151 or Wednesday, whichever comes first.

If you missed the trade in GOOG or INTC, this could be your last big opportunity in a large player before the summer slump.

good luck

Bo

Lack of updates...nothing going on.

I got stopped out of TSO and DUG yesterday for small losses. I was due. I saw the news on PBR and therefore refocused my attention on HES. HES was flirting for a breakout close so I bought at the close just under $101. I sold this morning at $104.40. Right now I'm 100% cash. The markets to me feel like a calm before the storm. I'm talking about a complete capitulation to around 10800 or worse in the DOW. But everytime we run at 12200 some buyers step up. I see we are green again in the indices.

My gut says that the big boys are going to hold through earnings season and then dump everything shortly after sometime in May. This will result in a very slow and boring summer in the markets. Buyers would then return in August.

We will see how it plays out. This is really boring right now.

Crazy Mkt.

Still holding DUG. Bought and sold additional shares around the core today as well, for 50 cent/share gains. Also bought a bunch of TSO at $27.45. Sold a third of that position at $27.95.
My current portfolio:

20% DUG
40% TSO
40% Cash

This is quite aggressive, especially given that this is truly dependent on oil. I think that if oil comes in TSO will move higher. Refiners are moving bigtime.

Mid morning Thursday

Haven't posted much this week because I haven't traded much. Very tough to tell if we are just pulling back real quick for even a greater rise, or if we are beginning another leg down. I'm still holding DUG. I almost increase my position yesterday after the inventory #s were released because DUG took a big hit. After it finished green yesterday, it looks to me like it is forming a bottom around $34. I traded FXP intraday for $3/share gain yesterday. I don't post these right away because I don't like taking time to come over here and write it during the day. If I'm posting mid-day its because the action is slow and I am waiting for signals. This is my style-- and I don't want anyone to think that I'm a poser. Currently, I'm down about $1.25/share on DUG.

End of Trading Tuesday

Still holding DUG, no reason not too. It retested its lows on Monday, only to reverse. Todays action was similar only it didn't test lows and it finished higher. I'm looking for DUG to trade higher very short term. If we happen to get a 5% to 20% profit taking in that sector, even better. Other than this, I haven't been able to find too much. In fact, the market is very eery. Volume is pathetic and action is primarily sideways. I'm concerned that the bulls just can't bring it higher. Technicals suggest an intermediate term rally like I've mentioned before but fundamentals point to a continued bear market with the worst yet to come.
Is this the calm before the storm???

Have a Great Weekend

I'm still holding DUG. I don't have many shares so I'm content holding for some time if I need to. I may place a stop above the IEO breakout in case it decides to make new highs and I guess it is getting close. I dabbled in FXP again today but decided to close it out at the close for a small profit-- I don't like holding that one overnight plus I wanted to see more selling in U.S. issues at the close which really didn't happen. I still think we are in a bear market, but I'm not sure how long the rally in U.S. will last. We might just see 13200 on the DOW before the bulls rest.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday

About 3:18 ET and I'm calling it a day. Yesterday I made no trades, although I almost got into RIMM AH but my trade never filled $118. I did buy SRS for an overnight.
I sold SRS this morning for a $1.50/share profit.
I bought RIMM today at $123 and sold at $124.
I am now holding DUG for possibly an intermediate term play. Oil has a tendency to give back some gains going into the weekend, so we will se what happens. If it is up nicely tomorrow I'll take profits, if not, I'm willing to hold it since it has hit the bottom of its channel-- I don't really believe in triple bottoms although the major indices are challenging my belief. Maybe DUG will too.

No April Fools

Well, I sat out Monday due to the rise in equities plus I was busy doing other things besides trading. Today, I was busy again, but saw the IWM flirting with its breakout (as were many issues). So I bought UWM and held it intraday for a $1/share gain. I also bought some XHB on a breakout intraday for a $0.40 profit. The bulls had their day, but how long will it continue???

I regret not buying GLD on its breakdown today. If its down again tomorrow, I'm in. At this point, I'm licking my chops and if the DOW can make it to 12900, I'll be salivating to put some shorts on. FXP, SKF, and any double inverse ETF is on my radar.