Things are likely to remain volatile until Congress acts on this bail out plan. No matter how they act, things are still bad. This financial crises is ugly and people are getting hurt in money markets, bonds, and other (safe investments). Sound like 1930s?
Congress WILL act in some fashion. But that doesn't save the stock market. We need to expect a long term recession if not depression.
So, today is Wed. the 25th of September. I'm going long next Monday the 29th or Tuesday the 30th. Stocks I'm looking at: GS, BAC, AAPL, RIMM, and other Tech and/or big financials. I'm going to sell in or around Yom Kippur that week of October 6th. I'm expecting an absolute bloodbath after that to end October as election volatility sets in.
1. People will want to take long term capital gains prior to the election AND prior to the end of the year.
2. The election also gives reason to take tax loss selling earlier than normal.
3. A "Bail out" plan will not save the economy and/or corporate profits...we will need to run a recession course.
4. People are still pulling out their money from the market to help pay for their homes and the cost of rising food prices.
5. Institutions are not buying into the stock market yet (how can they?). When they begin to buy, we can begin to look for a bottom. But, folks, this is a ways off.
Goog luck.
If you have questions or want clarity please email me: tenyeartrader@yahoo.com
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
September 17th-- Probably time to go long
FNM, FRE, BSC, LEH, MER, and AIG are all gone. Who might be next? WB, WM, and MS seem prime to disapear in some fashion.
Winter is around the corner and so is the election. Are you going to be caught short? It is time to buy Tech, Commodities, and Multicaps with low international exposure (low strong dollar risk). Stocks to consider buying:
FCX
UNG
RSX
USO
DIG
VMI
DBA
XME
GLD
SLV
JASO
WFR
SPWR
Winter is around the corner and so is the election. Are you going to be caught short? It is time to buy Tech, Commodities, and Multicaps with low international exposure (low strong dollar risk). Stocks to consider buying:
FCX
UNG
RSX
USO
DIG
VMI
DBA
XME
GLD
SLV
JASO
WFR
SPWR
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