I'm Tired

Its late so these points will be brief and frank.

1. I'm not a traditional bear
2. Markets are getting VERY extended
3. Oil will not reach $70 this year and this trade is dead
4. I'm expecting an all time slow market this summer
5. It is very possible that we may not head lower until the Fall
6. UNG is a great long term buy at these levels.....hurricane season is still a ways off, but UNG should climb into it. I don't know when it will start.

Vacation Time

I'm outta here the rest of the week. On to Seattle, then Hawaii, with a nightly stop in Vegas on the way home!

What I like:

long OIH
long DXD
long SLV
long KONG
long WFC
long UYG

Wait for confirmation of a top

It seems all of the bears are gearing up to put the hammer down and are calling for an intermediate term top.
My advice: wait for confirmation. It will come in the form of a daily reversal or a one day large volume decline. We haven't seen more than two days in row down since the rally began. With all of the earnings this week my best guess says that this is the week than we either: Explode much higher assuming the rise or we reverse lower to resume the major downtrend.

Either way, I'd be a buyer of June puts across the board in stocks and/or indices to play an eventual fall or correction.

I'll be out of town past Tuesday....

good luck

OPEX week

The hangover from last week's party should carry us into Wed. I expect Wed through Friday to show us continued upside and for the SPY to top out around 87.50-88.03 for an intermediate swing high.

May through August will be a boring grind lower which may not produce new lows.

Thats my take on the markets, now lets see how wrong I am;).

I'll be playing most of the same symbols I've been using:

WFR
TSL
SRS
URE
SKF
WFC
FCX
UCO
UNG

...keep your eye on the dollar

Not Much will move the market this week

It is a Holiday week. Expect lower volume. One potential market mover this week is
AA reporting earnings Tuesday after the bell. All they need to do is report in-line and the stock should move higher.
This might be a good week to step aside for a vacation.

I'm out of SRS for a nice profit.
I like the looks of X on the AA earnings.

The Castle is getting pretty high

SRS is sporting an identical breakdown candle as in December. Odds are high that we see a small move with consolidation. IYR might hit $34 or it might not. Either way, SRS is going back to $58 for sure, maybe even $75 on the next leg down in the market.

Most of my charts are showing Bollinger Band short trades. APPL to $120, OIH to $130, RIMM to $75, SKF to $50, XLF to $12.50, IYR to $34!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What? These are some of the projections I'm hearing from the bulls in the near term.

I think it is safe to say that these projections certainly are not ruled out, but the castle is getting pretty high and people are getting "comfortable" again.

Key resistances to watch this week:
IYR $29.60
XLF $10
OIH $88
WFR $19.20

Tough Market

Like I said a few posts ago, this is a tough market now. There is sooooooo much resistance above us it makes me sick to go long.
As for today's action, I'm not surprised by the late day profit-taking. The M2M news was sorta just shunned for the most part. My take is that the market tried to reverse in the afternoon and it failed. I think we closed neutral.
At this point, I'm not sure what else can make this market go up other than good earnings. I don't think earnings will improve until next quarter however.

I like the short scalps here as the market will hunt for a short term toppy top. We are short term overbought. Intermediate term we may see 860 or even 880 on the SPX.

Lets see what the market does after tomorrows job numbers.

M2M decision time

We will know tomorrow. 8AM eastern the meetings begin. We will also be getting updates from the G20 starting to roll in around 9AM and 10AM.

I expect a bullish early morning. No matter what comes of these meetings i think we sell off hard.
Here's the catch:
If M2M gets changed, you need to be a buyer of the selloff late in the day because next week we will explode higher.
UYG
XLF
BAC
WFC
...you know the financials. WFR looks really really juicy on its triangular breakout. No matter what, I'm longing WFR.