Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Q&A
How do you find your trades?
I keep a large basket watchlist (which continuosly is updated).
Some are news driven each day.
Sometimes I follow other traders ideas through blogs or those that I know personally.
Sometimes it is a 'feel' trade.
I rarely short stocks. I mean, the markets have always gone higher over the long run. Anytime you short no matter what, the odds are already against you. When short I use inverse ETFs. Shorting stocks has not worked for me.
How do go about placing stops?
Here's the thing, I know the stop before I know the entry. Sometimes the stop is just below support which I think has been the most effective. Sometimes its just the LOD. A lot of it depends on how long I'm willing to hold. What everyone should know: you can recover from a 3% loss. You can recover from a 5% loss. You can even recover from a 10% loss. But you can't recover from a 25%+ loss. Use stops even if they are mental ones.
Is it true that MMs like to run stops?
Yes, this is true to some degree but not in the sense you think. Stock prices are all based on supply and demand. So, it really isn't manipulation like some people think. If for instance if MGM is trading at $8.10 and the previous day's low is $8.03 and there is widely known support at $8.00 then most traders will have stops at $7.99 and $7.98. If demand for the stock is low between $8 and $8.10, the MM will not hesitate to run those stops because of the low demand. Demand typically increases when the price declines and a volume surge on the stop run will bounce it right back up. Sometimes traders see this as manipulation and get frustrated. A good rule of thumb is that if your stop is tight make sure it is not set at a 'widely known' level. Mental stops avoid this problem altogether but could hurt you should the stock turn one way on a news driven event.
Who are the top 3 traders in the country?
1. Goldman Sachs
2. Eric Bolling
3. Anyone else who is currently on an unbelievable run
If you subscribe to Trader Monthly magazine, you will get the idea. In my opinion, GS leads the pack in every category and Eric Bolling has had tremendous results that most will never have.
Who are the top 3 blog traders?
This is difficult because a lot of results are not known. Based on my experience, I'd go with the following:
1. Z stock http://www.zstock7.com/
2. Traderbean http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
3. Tim Knight http://www.slopeofhope.com/
I have no idea if these traders are the three best but based on everything I have seen, most of the information made public on these blogs would have made traders a ton of cash.
Will Obama get reelected?
I hope not. I doubt it. But you know, the masses are asses.
I keep a large basket watchlist (which continuosly is updated).
Some are news driven each day.
Sometimes I follow other traders ideas through blogs or those that I know personally.
Sometimes it is a 'feel' trade.
I rarely short stocks. I mean, the markets have always gone higher over the long run. Anytime you short no matter what, the odds are already against you. When short I use inverse ETFs. Shorting stocks has not worked for me.
How do go about placing stops?
Here's the thing, I know the stop before I know the entry. Sometimes the stop is just below support which I think has been the most effective. Sometimes its just the LOD. A lot of it depends on how long I'm willing to hold. What everyone should know: you can recover from a 3% loss. You can recover from a 5% loss. You can even recover from a 10% loss. But you can't recover from a 25%+ loss. Use stops even if they are mental ones.
Is it true that MMs like to run stops?
Yes, this is true to some degree but not in the sense you think. Stock prices are all based on supply and demand. So, it really isn't manipulation like some people think. If for instance if MGM is trading at $8.10 and the previous day's low is $8.03 and there is widely known support at $8.00 then most traders will have stops at $7.99 and $7.98. If demand for the stock is low between $8 and $8.10, the MM will not hesitate to run those stops because of the low demand. Demand typically increases when the price declines and a volume surge on the stop run will bounce it right back up. Sometimes traders see this as manipulation and get frustrated. A good rule of thumb is that if your stop is tight make sure it is not set at a 'widely known' level. Mental stops avoid this problem altogether but could hurt you should the stock turn one way on a news driven event.
Who are the top 3 traders in the country?
1. Goldman Sachs
2. Eric Bolling
3. Anyone else who is currently on an unbelievable run
If you subscribe to Trader Monthly magazine, you will get the idea. In my opinion, GS leads the pack in every category and Eric Bolling has had tremendous results that most will never have.
Who are the top 3 blog traders?
This is difficult because a lot of results are not known. Based on my experience, I'd go with the following:
1. Z stock http://www.zstock7.com/
2. Traderbean http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
3. Tim Knight http://www.slopeofhope.com/
I have no idea if these traders are the three best but based on everything I have seen, most of the information made public on these blogs would have made traders a ton of cash.
Will Obama get reelected?
I hope not. I doubt it. But you know, the masses are asses.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Positions
Here is what I like, watching, or am holding:
KONG: absolutely strong over the past year, watch $14 level
TIE: watch the $9 level, it looks to be opening above this morning...$12 may come quick
C: critical level, $5
MGM: critical level $10
JAZZ: momentum
SVA: swine flu momentum
FXP: for downside in the mkts
UNG: nice 10% pop past two days, $11 should be troubling for UNG
ERTS: in and out
ENER: in and out nice 20%+ pop yesterday
LEAP: buy in low 17s...going to $20
VG: long term lotto, just signed deal with Apple
ESLR: lotto type play, I think if solars can get hot again it will see $4.50
KONG: absolutely strong over the past year, watch $14 level
TIE: watch the $9 level, it looks to be opening above this morning...$12 may come quick
C: critical level, $5
MGM: critical level $10
JAZZ: momentum
SVA: swine flu momentum
FXP: for downside in the mkts
UNG: nice 10% pop past two days, $11 should be troubling for UNG
ERTS: in and out
ENER: in and out nice 20%+ pop yesterday
LEAP: buy in low 17s...going to $20
VG: long term lotto, just signed deal with Apple
ESLR: lotto type play, I think if solars can get hot again it will see $4.50
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
What Everyone Thinks
Everyone thinks that the bear market of 2001-2003 will yield a similar pattern in charts during this recession.
Here's the sorta things you hear that verify this:
"retest of the lows"
"V shaped recovery"
"W shaped recovery"
"10% pullback this month"
"next leg down"
C is for Cookie but N is for Noway in hell. Nobody knows what is going to happen and the sooner you all get this into your head, the better off you will be.
If I had a gun to my head, I'd say we go up to DOW 11,000 or even 12,000 next year. Then, we we will slam into the lows and make fresh lows with an eventual DOW of 4000 or even 5000.
In the meantime, keep buying low and selling'em high! If you can't do it right, then don't do it!
Here's the sorta things you hear that verify this:
"retest of the lows"
"V shaped recovery"
"W shaped recovery"
"10% pullback this month"
"next leg down"
C is for Cookie but N is for Noway in hell. Nobody knows what is going to happen and the sooner you all get this into your head, the better off you will be.
If I had a gun to my head, I'd say we go up to DOW 11,000 or even 12,000 next year. Then, we we will slam into the lows and make fresh lows with an eventual DOW of 4000 or even 5000.
In the meantime, keep buying low and selling'em high! If you can't do it right, then don't do it!
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