Thursday, March 19, 2009

Bear Market Rally

These bear market rallies can last 2 months. Brace yourselves.

IDEAS:

USO could be breaking out
UNG is so cheap you should be able to buy it at the Dollar Store
Semis might try a break out....SMH or the double USD
UYM might have legs to $13.50
XME and the miners look very good

An interesting trade would be to long financials and short homebuilders.

Make no mistake about it, our economy is B-A-D and the Fed is buying "stuff" because rates can't get any lower. I'm not in the bull camp, but I'm careful of the bear market rallies.
I think the S&P must print at least 450 before we are out of the woods...at least from a valuation perspective. Right now an S&P of 23! Come on! Look at the economy! When the PE of the S&P is averaged in the single digits, we will talk bottoms.

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