In a market this boring, we can easily lose site of a simple fact: buy low and sell high. If you are making overnight trades or daytrades and are experiencing profits, I suggest you take them when you have them. The upside is very contained here as the S&P struggles to regain new highs...but the more it bumps up against it, the more likely it is to break and when it breaks it will probably be huge. The downside is also contained. What you ask? The dips are being bought, S&P support is not defined at this juncture...a break of prior daily lows at 923.85 is a must for the bears to take back control. And even if that level breaks, the bulls could bid it back up. So, we have major sideways containment at this point and if you are trading, take profits when you have them because the profits are hard to come by during this period.
I am short the S&P via SDS. My stop is just above the highs on the S&P or the lows for SDS. This rally is impressive and is now going on 35 days during this cycle. The average trough to trough which is 39 days. From the bottom, we are actually on day 65. Odds of a reversal are increasing rapidly. Make no mistake about it, this IS a bear market that we are in and equities will pull back again. They are very capable of putting in a fresh low as well.
BAC
USO
UUP
IYR
UNG
TBT
SRS
XLF
SPY
SDS
URE
good luck out there
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I seem to always sell and take profits (No problem there with your suggestion to take profits). I think I sell way too soon. I leave alot of '$ on the table'.
ReplyDeleteMakes sense what your saying ... we should have reversed way before now. But, Obama is doing all he can to keep the economy moving forward. He has thrown trillions at the economy and he'll spend more in a moment. Whatever it takes. Obama's propping up the economy and this creates a 'bullish' allusion. 'Market growth' is not linked to GNP (growth). But 'market growth' is superficial, smoke & mirrors, and it can't last. Where is industrial expansion, +production output, and money for R & D? Its not there because the country is in economic survival mode. How can the market keep going up with little output? He may pull it off for a while with bail-outs, tarp, etc. He's doing what he can in a horrible situation. However, the true nature of the economy has to surface. We know you cannot fool mother nature and you cannot fool the true nature of economics. The economy is in bad shape and the smoke mirrors cannot prop it up forever. You know, its amazing how the market shrugs off huge unemployment figures, record foreclosures, and commercial bankrupcies and it keeps going up. The market heavily depends/expects/assumes the Feds will fix the problem. Your correct! The market has got to come down. Its superficially held up. I just hope the fall is not as ugly as March 2009 and October 2008. I'm really not that pessimistic (ha!) but simply just sharing my views here. I'll stop now ... I ramble too much
Tenyear, thanks again for all your work and the stock alerts. I learn alot from your comments and opinions concerning market direction. Thanks for the reverse alert.
Really great
DeleteThanks for the comments Nergo, it is nice to know someone is stopping by here!
ReplyDeleteExample of problems in the US, but not much coverage on mainstream News channels:
ReplyDelete"U.S. foreclosure activity for May ebbed from April's record, but mortgages still failed at a staggering pace as President Barack Obama's rescue programs had not had time to fully take root, RealtyTrac said on Thursday." -- from reyters, June 11th
... oops ... meant to type "Reuters" above
ReplyDeleteI saw your post at Zee's site about your sabbatical until July. Say ... at least drop-by Zee's and post something ... even if its boring :) Have a great time ... kick-back & relax. Thanks for all you do with your market analysis and alerts on trades. I really appreciate it. (I messed-up and did not buy FXP yesterday as you suggested ... I meant to and got distracted. FXP up today ... what a great alert!!)
ReplyDeleteHello tenyear
ReplyDeleteBeen enjoying your comments on market.It is truly amazing how you get it right so many times.I forgot your e mail address.I have a proposal I like to run it by you.My e mail address is sungsop1@aol.com.
Thanks
Sam
Ten Year,
ReplyDeleteYou were spot-on with your June 9th post and forecast above "Buy Low and Sell High". Incredible!!! A great piece of work!! Last two days market has dropped 6%+ points. If I or anyone had heeded your forecast and shorted or bought inverse ETFs based on your post they would have profited 'big-time'. Your the man!!! I respect the work you do, and really appreciate your willingness to share your thoughts on market conditions and trades. Hope to 'see ya' on Zee's site intraday.
Nergo